As 2025 draws to a close, the Canadian real estate market has entered an early hibernation, settling into what economists call a distinct “holding pattern.” November data shows a national landscape marked by hesitation, with buyers and sellers waiting out the final weeks of the year.
This November, 33,895 properties were sold, compared to 40,643 in October. The national average home price fell by 1.2% to $682,219, down from $690,195 a month prior. This is a 2% drop from the same time last year. At the end of November, 173,000 properties were listed for sale, which is 8.5% more than a year ago, but total inventory is still 2.5% below the long-term average.
The cooling activity may have come as a surprise to those who expected a robust end to the year. Valérie Paquin, Chair of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), notes that 2025 was widely expected to be the year the market emerged from its “interest rate-induced hibernation.” However, unexpected economic headwinds, especially the shock of U.S. tariffs, have dampened that recovery. “The rug was pulled out from under that recovery,” Paquin explained. With interest rates now lower, the industry’s focus has shifted toward spring 2026 to see if normal activity levels will return.
Major Metros Move in Sync While Smaller Markets Plunge
As the market cooled nationwide, the data shows a clear split: major cities saw steady declines, while mid-sized regions experienced more dramatic swings. Smaller markets saw the most significant month-over-month decreases in sales: Trois-Rivières saw transactions fall 31.5% to 102, down from 149. Winnipeg also dropped 30.9%, from 1,222 to 844. In comparison, Canada’s largest markets moved together, with Greater Toronto down 18.4% to 5,010 from 6,138, and Greater Vancouver also down 18.4% to 1,845 from 2,262. Quebec’s markets stood out for their stability. Montreal’s transactions fell 10.7% to 3,542 from 3,968, and Sherbrooke had the smallest decline, down 9.5% to 191 from 211.
National Inventory Slips as Winter Approaches
Looking at the broader picture, inventory trends in November showed a broad tightening of supply nationwide compared to the previous year. National new listings dipped 2.0% to 55,361 in November 2025. The West Coast also saw declines, with Fraser Valley listings dropping to 1,920 (down 9.0% from 2,109) and Greater Vancouver inventory slipping to 3,612 (down 2.6% from 3,709). Central and Eastern Canada markets mirrored this trend. Quebec CMA listings fell 6.6% to 901, while Kitchener–Waterloo saw a 10.1% decline, ending the month with 568 new listings. This scarcity was even more pronounced in several markets with smaller populations: Saguenay listings dropped 29.5% to 93 (down from 132), Sherbrooke fell 15.0% to 204 (down from 240), and Thunder Bay decreased 2.9% to 166 (down from 171).
Quebec and Atlantic Markets Surge While Major Metros Cool
Similarly, some prices in Canada showed a clear split this month compared to November 2024. More affordable areas saw double-digit increases, while prices in big cities fell. Eastern Canada led the way, with Trois-Rivières CMA up 19.5% to $437,505 and Quebec CMA up 14.3% to $485,849. Newfoundland & Labrador also rose 8.7% to $359,558.
Meanwhile, the most expensive markets dropped: Greater Toronto fell 6.0% to $1,039,458, and Greater Vancouver was down 2.9% to $1,241,414. Most large cities struggled, including Windsor-Essex, which had Ontario’s most significant drop at -7.2% ($536,398). Victoria was an exception, rising 5.5% to $994,848, and Calgary stayed nearly the same, up 0.4% to $633,777.
Is This the Signal to Get Off the Sidelines?
According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, the current environment is forcing sellers to be flexible. He notes that the market is seeing “price concessions in November in order to get deals done before the end of the year.” However, he remains optimistic about 2026. “That said, the Bank of Canada’s clear signal that rates are now about as good as they’re likely going to get is the green light many fixed-rate borrowers have no doubt been waiting for, so we remain of the view that activity will continue to pick up next year.” With the market in transition, local nuances matter more than ever.
If you’re preparing to enter the market, whether buying or selling, understanding your neighbourhood’s specific conditions is vital. Interested in learning more about taking the next step towards your 2026 real estate goals? Give us a call today!
