The Toronto real estate market kicked off 2024 with promising momentum, as sales increased month-over-month in most areas. This trend indicates a shift in homebuyer sentiment, likely due to decreasing borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada announced last month that it was holding the overnight lending rate at 5%, and since then, fixed rates have begun to come down, with some as low as 4.89%.
“We had a positive start to 2024. The Bank of Canada expects the rate of inflation to recede as we move through the year. This would support lower interest rates which would bolster home buyers’ confidence to move back into the market. First-time buyers currently facing high average rents would benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the move to homeownership more affordable,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.
Enjoying our content? Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter to get real estate market insights, news, and reports straight to your inbox.
Demand Heating Up Across the GTA
For much of fall 2023, total home sales in the GTA were down month-over-month as buyers felt uncertain about the future of interest rates. Last month, home sales declined 18.7% from November to December, but now it seems that the market has turned a corner. Overall sales for the region were up 22.6% month-over-month and up 36.3% year-over-year according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). This boost in sales was experienced across all property types, but especially in the condo apartment segment. Condo apartment sales were up 41.4% month-over-month and 41% year-over-year. Townhomes experienced the next largest increase with a 22.8% month-over-month jump in sales, suggesting homebuyers are gravitating toward more affordable housing options.
Halton Region, York Region, and Peel Region all experienced month-over-month sales increases of more than 20%, while Mississauga, Brampton, Burlington, and Halton Hills experienced month-over-month sales increases of more than 30%. The City of Toronto and Durham Region experienced less rapid sales growth, but still an encouraging uptick with month-over-month sales increases of 16.3% and 15.2% respectively.
However as sales continue to increase, inventory will get tighter. New listings were still up month-over-month in January, at a whopping 113.9%, but active listings were down 2.7%. Months of inventory for the region also slipped from 2.5 months in December to 2.4 months in January. Some regions are already experiencing tight conditions, with Halton Region at just 2.2 months of inventory and Durham Region at 1.6 months.
Home Prices Still Coming Down in Key Markets
Despite buyer interest resurging, prices are still cooling in Halton Region, York Region, and the City of Toronto. The average home price for all TRREB regions was $1,026,703 in January, a 5.3% drop from December and a 1.2% drop from January 2023. Semi-detached properties were the only property type to experience a month-over-month increase in price, rising by 1.1%, while the average price for detached properties was down 4.8% month-over-month.
Halton Region experienced the largest month-over-month drop in price, decreasing by 12.2% to $1,143,518, and the City of Toronto is still maintaining an average price under the $1 million mark, with the average price dropping month-over-month by 9.7% to $959,915. However, it’s unlikely prices will continue to drop for much longer as increased demand will help push prices upwards. In Mississauga, for example, where demand for detached properties is strong, the average price for a detached home increased month-over-month by 17.8%. Prospective buyers should continue to closely monitor their local market to see how conditions are evolving.
Not sure if now is the right time to buy or not? Our real estate agents are in your city and available to help you prepare. Whether you have questions about interest rates or are looking for more information about housing market conditions, contact us today for more information.
