The Bank of Canada announced its third interest rate cut of the year today, lowering rates by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This follows two consecutive interest rate drops of 25 basis points in June and July, bringing the overnight lending rate down by a total of 75 basis points in just three months.
So far, the impact of the first two rate cuts has been minimal on the real estate market. National home sales fell by 4.8% from June to July, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). But this decline could also be the result of seasonality, as real estate transactions tend to slow down in the summer months. As fall approaches, the second busiest season for real estate, this third interest rate cut could spark renewed buyer interest.
With Inflation Down, Anticipation Builds for Further Rate Cuts
Canadian inflation fell to 2.5% in July, the lowest since March 2021, which may have been a key factor in the Bank’s decision to lower interest rates today. Across the border, it’s anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at their next meeting on September 17-18 as U.S. inflation also came down in July to 2.9%.
Fixed rates have been on a downward trend since the beginning of this year, with the average 5-year fixed rate starting at 4.84% in January and decreasing to 4.54% by July. As of the week of August 26, Ratehub.ca reported that the best five-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada was 4.19%, marking the lowest rate since June 2023. This is great news for those coming up for renewal or those preparing to shop this fall. This may also be a good time to consider a variable-rate mortgage as interest rates are showing many signs of continuing to drop, offering potential savings over the long term.
Considering all of these positive economic indicators, many experts are predicting that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates again in October, with a potential further cut in December if trends continue in the right direction. If that does happen, the overnight lending rate could be as low as 3.75% by the end of this year.
Why Fall Might Be the Ideal Time to Buy
Spring has long been known as the peak buying season for real estate, but with lower borrowing costs, rising inventory, and less competition, fall may be emerging as the most ideal time to buy this year.
With the exception of the Prairies, home prices peaked in April and May of this year and have since been on the decline. In Toronto, the average detached home price peaked in April at $1,516,070 but has since fallen by 6% to $1,425,927. On top of that, many homes in the Toronto Region are selling below their original listing price, leading to further opportunities for prospective buyers. Likewise, in Hamilton-Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Ottawa, average home prices have fallen by more than 3% from April to July 2024.
If buyers are motivated to return to the market this fall, they’ll find significantly improved inventory conditions compared to the spring. In April 2024, months of inventory for the Toronto Region was 2.6 months, but in July it rose to 3.2 months. Provincially, inventory is growing substantially too. In Ontario, months of inventory rose from 2.8 months in April to 4.2 in July, while in British Columbia, months of inventory increased from 4.7 months to 6 months.
This increase in inventory, coupled with fewer buyers, has shifted many markets in favor of buyers. According to the latest CREA report, the sales-to-new-listings ratio for Greater Toronto was 33%, showing that new listings significantly outnumber sales. Nationally, the sales-to-new-listings ratio in July was 52%, indicating a balanced market. Compared to last July, when the national sales-to-new-listings ratio was 56%, this is an improvement.
Given these trends, buyers entering the market this fall will likely encounter favorable conditions, with increased negotiating power and a wide range of options. And if home prices follow the trend of previous years, continuing to drop until December, buyers are likely to benefit from even softer prices.
Do you have questions about the recent rate drop or conditions in your local market? Our real estate agents are here to help. Give us a call today to speak to an agent in your area.
