Sky-high inflation and surging job numbers weren’t enough to move the dial on mortgage rates; in its final announcement of the year, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has kept its Overnight Lending Rate at status quo, doubling down on messaging that a hike won’t happen until at least the second half of 2022 as the Omicron variant and supply chain issues still warrant “extraordinary forward guidance”.
The Boc’s trend-setting rate, which sets the cost of variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit for consumer lenders, remains at 0.25%, where it has been set since March 27, 2020. The Bank has kept the rate at a record low in order to stimulate the economy during the pandemic via a lower cost of living for consumers, and liquid credit between lenders.
The Bank also announced it will continue with the “re-investment phase” of its government bond buying efforts, indicating costs will also remain stable for fixed-rate products in the near term.
No Hint Yet of an Early Hike
While there was no doubt that the BoC would hold pat in today’s announcement, it remained persistently cautious in its language, stating, “Accommodative financial conditions are still supporting economic activity.” This bucked recent analyst expectations that strong economic performance could prompt a hint of a sooner-than-expected rate hike.
Global growth surged in the third quarter of the year, as many countries grappled with rising inflation due to supply bottlenecks. The Canadian economy grew by 5.5% in the third quarter, as forecasted, and GDP now sits 1.5% below the pre-pandemic 2019 level. This has been supported by a boom in consumer confidence and spending as vaccination rates improve and restrictions are lifted off the service sector. Employment and wage growth have also now reached pre-pandemic levels, and a late fall rebound in the housing market provided an economic shot in the arm.
Related Read: GTA Home Prices and Sales Smash November Record
However, the BoC is sticking to its wait-and-see approach on inflation, especially given the emergence of the Omicron variant, and its potential to upend the travel sector and oil prices.
“The Bank is closely watching inflation expectations and labour costs to ensure that the forces pushing up prices do not become embedded in ongoing inflation,” it states in its release. “The Governing Council judges that in view of ongoing excess capacity, the economy continues to require considerable monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.”
What Will Happen When Rates Do Start to Rise?
There is concern that once the BoC begins to raise its rates next year, it will pose a financial shock to indebted Canadian households.
Recent mortgage data from Oxford Economics reveals a growing proportion of new mortgages can be considered overly leveraged with a loan-to-income ratio of over 450%; the number of borrowers falling into this category increased 22% over 2020.
Oxford’s analysts also calculated that should the BoC start to hike rates in the last half of 2022, it would add $86 to the average monthly mortgage payment. Should the BoC hike its rate all the way to 2% by the end of 2026, payments will jump by an additional $236.
What Does Today’s Announcement Mean for Your Mortgage?
As the Overnight Lending Rate is used by consumer lenders when setting their Prime Rate, and by extension, their variable lending products, those who currently hold a variable-rate mortgage won’t see any change to their monthly mortgage payments or to the amount of their payment going toward their principal loan, as a result of today’s announcement.
However, variable-rate borrowers will be wise to assess how their debt servicing costs may change in the second half of next year. While it remains to be seen when the BoC will make its first hike, or how many hikes it will make before it’s finished, economists are in agreement that rates will be on the rise by the third quarter of 2022, with some even calling for an increase as early as June.
Fixed-rate mortgage holders will be largely unaffected by today’s announcement, as their monthly payment amount is locked in throughout the entirety of their mortgage term. However, borrowers who anticipate needing to refinance or renew, or take out a new mortgage, next summer may find themselves in a higher interest rate environment.
The next Bank of Canada rate announcement, as well as the release of their next Monetary Policy Report, is scheduled for January 26, 2022.
