Following the Bank of Canada’s third interest rate cut in early September—lowering rates by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent—the GTA real estate market saw a notable shift. A surge in new listings gave buyers increased options and more substantial negotiating power. While home sales remained steady compared to August, the rise in available properties and longer time on the market allowed buyers to take a more thoughtful aproach, creating one of the most balanced markets in recent months. According to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), total home sales reached 4,996—up 8.5 percent from last year and just ahead of August’s 4,975 transactions year-over-year.
“The annual improvement in September home sales was more than matched by the increase in new listings over the same period. This resulted in a better-supplied market and increased negotiating power for buyers re-entering the market. The ability to negotiate on price led to moderate year-over-year price declines, particularly in the more affordable condo apartment and townhouse segments, which are popular with first-time buyers,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
Sales Rise, but Prices Stay in Check
Detached homes led the charge in September, with 2,354 units sold—up 10.5 percent year-over-year. Semi-detached homes followed closely, posting a solid 12.6 percent increase, while townhomes experienced a 14.3 percent jump in sales. Condo apartments, however, saw little movement, rising just 0.8 percent to 1,312 units.
Despite the increased activity, the significant rise in listings kept prices from overheating. New listings grew by 10.5 percent, totaling 18,089, while active listings surged 35 percent year-over-year to 25,612. This influx of inventory tempered price growth, with the average selling price ticking up slightly to $1,107,291 from $1,074,425 in August.
That said, some property types faced more downward pressure. Townhome prices fell by 4 percent year-over-year to $904,200, and condo apartments saw a 3.6 percent dip, with an average price of $682,543. Still, these price adjustments could present appealing opportunities in the GTA for buyers seeking both space and affordability.
Longer Time on the Market, More Buyer Leverage
Another trend that defined September was the extended time properties spent on the market. The average listing days on the market (LDOM) increased to 27 days, up from 20 days last year, while the property days on the market (PDOM), which tracks cumulative time even if relisted, stretched to 43 days. These longer market times suggest a shift toward more balanced conditions, where buyers have increased leverage when negotiating prices.
Peel and York Sales Stay Strong as Fall Market Heats Up
Peel and York Regions recorded the highest sales activity outside the City of Toronto in September.
Peel Region experienced a slight decline in sales, decreasing by 2.89 percent from August, with 907 homes sold in September compared to 934 in the previous month. New listings rose significantly by 21.43 percent, totaling 3,150 in September, while active listings increased by 7.37 percent. The inventory months increased slightly from 3.3 to 3.4, and the PDOM increased by 4.65 percent, from 43 days to 45. Despite the decline in sales, the average home price increased by 2.83 percent to $1,058,346, up from $1,029,214 in August.
Within the Peel Region, Mississauga led with 453 sales at an average price of $1,048,914, followed by Brampton with 392 sales at an average price of $1,035,184. Caledon ranked third, with 62 sales and an average price of $1,273,708.
York Region also saw notable market activity: Markham led the region with 239 sales at an average price of $1,236,403, followed by Vaughan with 207 sales at an average price of $1,270,488. Richmond Hill recorded 151 sales, with an average price of $1,365,604.
Mixed Results in the 416 Region
In the 416, detached homes continued their strong performance, rising to 599 transactions—up 23.8 percent from 484 in August. Semi-detached homes also saw a significant boost, with 180 sales from 133 from the previous month. However, townhouse sales dipped slightly, dropping to 158 from 169, a decline of 6.5 percent. Similarly, condo apartments saw a modest drop, with 864 sales in September, down 6.3 percent from August’s 922.
Regarding prices, detached homes in the 416 area slipped slightly to $1,685,755, down slightly from $1,692,239 in August. On the other hand, condo prices saw an encouraging uptick, climbing from $681,835 to $707,917 in September—offering a glimmer of hope for sellers in this segment.
Looking Ahead: A Positive Outlook for Buyers
As the market evolves, changes to mortgage lending guidelines are expected to offer more flexibility for homebuyers. TRREB CEO John DiMichele highlighted, “We are pleased with the positive changes to mortgage lending guidelines announced over the past month. The ability for existing mortgage holders to shop around for the best rate without facing the stress test will result in more affordable renewals. Longer amortization periods and the ability to insure mortgages for purchases over $1 million dollars will give home buyers more options as the GTA housing market recovers.”
TRREB President Jennifer Pearce echoed the optimism: “As buyers take advantage of changes to mortgage lending guidelines and borrowing costs trend lower, home sales will steadily increase in relation to population growth. With every rate cut, a growing number of GTA households will afford a long-term investment in home ownership, including first-time buyers.”
With mortgage lending rules easing and inventory on the rise, the outlook for buyers is increasingly positive. However, as the market absorbs its current supply of homes, prices could once again begin to climb—making it wise for prospective buyers to act sooner rather than later.
Are you thinking of buying or selling? Reach out to a trusted local Realtor for expert guidance as the market continues to shift.
