For many homebuyers, finding your dream home listing one day only for it to be sold the next is a heartbreaking but infrequent occurrence. For many New York homebuyers, however, it’s likely the standard.
May data from real estate boards across New York revealed just how quickly markets are moving in 61 counties statewide.
Of the counties with available data, 47 markets–or 77%–lean in favor of sellers. In two of those markets, local levels of inventory are below one month, which is more than four times below the national average. The bright side? The opposite is true for a handful of markets, which boast inventory levels well above national levels.
Zoocasa analyzed May data from three key REALTOR® boards across New York to find out where homes are selling fastest, and where buyers may be able to get a word in edgewise to land their next home.
Seller’s Markets Overtake New York Homebuying
To get a clearer picture of current conditions, we analyzed May data from local real estate boards, focusing on months of inventory. This measures how long it takes for current inventory to sell: under five months signals a seller’s market, between five and seven months is a balanced market, and over seven months is a buyer’s market.
In New York, May data shows consistent demand across three main regions: the Finger Lakes area, the Capital District and southern Hudson Valley. These areas consistently have some of the lowest months of inventory available, making them the fastest-selling markets. For buyers, this means you have to move quickly–but for sellers, it means more leverage on prices.
On the flipside, northern Hudson Valley and North Country had some of the highest inventory levels in May, with rates more than 10 times higher than particularly fast-moving areas.
Nationally, the MOI in May was 4.5, compared to 3.4 in New York statewide.
The Highest and Lowest MOIs Across New York
Kings County had the highest MOI in May at 10.2 months. This is a slight decrease from its 10.3 months of inventory in April, which was the highest of all counties in New York in the last five months. Kings has consistently had the highest MOI in New York since January.
Sullivan County had the second-highest MOI in New York at 9.4 months. The area’s MOI has consistently risen since February, gaining three months of inventory in the same amount of time.
Tied for the lowest MOI statewide are Genesee and Monroe counties, which have been battling it out for the bottom spot in recent months. Genesee had 0.9 months of inventory in May, holding steady from April. Monroe increased from 0.8 months in April to 0.9 months in May–this came after hitting the year-record low of 0.5 months in March.
What this means: Buyers in Kings County have a lot more breathing room to make a decision than buyers in Genesee or Monroe, where homes are moving much faster.
The Kings County Dilemma: High Inventory and Prices
Home to Brooklyn, Kings County is the most populated county in New York, with over 2.5 million residents. As part of New York City, it’s no surprise median sales prices come out above the national median at $669,500. Even so, there’s a stark divide between what Brooklyn buyers are willing or able to pay for a home and the asking price from sellers.
As new listings are added to the market and active listings grow, sales are stagnating. Sales have dropped consistently year-over-year in Kings County since January, with a 21.9% decrease in February. In May, sales dropped 9.3%, marking the fifth month of year-over-year sales decline in the area.
What this means: Kings County’s housing market has settled into a new pattern: prices keep climbing while fewer homes actually sell. For the market, this means buyers and sellers are fundamentally misaligned–a trend likely to continue as national inventory levels soar.
Although Bronx County is also part of New York City and makes the top five for highest MOI, it’s MOI was on the decline in May. The area also experienced an 8.6% increase in year-over-year sales and an 18.9% decrease in median sales price, perhaps pointing to price corrections in the market.
The connecting thread between the other bottom three counties is their location. All three counties are home to mostly smaller cities or municipalities, with city populations under 20,000, and also have sale prices well below the statewide average. Even so, the number of new listings is not keeping pace with closed sales, leading to an abundance of homes on the market.
Mid-Size Cities Showing Lower MOI in May
Data for the lowest MOI is split between two main areas: the southern border of Lake Ontario and the Albany-Schenectady-Troy region.
Monroe and Wayne counties are in and near Rochester. Just west of Rochester is Genesee County, home to the city of Batavia. Albany and Schenectady are in the Capital District.
Aside from Monroe County, year-over-year percentage changes in the MOI have consistently declined in these areas since January, signaling faster-moving markets. Given their small numbers, even slight shifts of 0.1 cause large swings in the year-over-year percentage changes. The largest change for these five counties was in Genesee in March, which saw a 45.5% decline in its MOI year-over-year to 0.6.
Despite the demand, home prices in these counties remain well below the statewide average, although all five counties did see year-over-year median sales price increases in May.
Monroe is the largest market by sales volume, coming in at 512 closed sales in May–a 17.6% decrease year over year. In fact, all but one of the lowest MOI counties saw sales decline in May, sometimes as much as 21.8%. New listings also slowed across all five counties in May, perhaps pointing to hesitancy from buyers and sellers in the face of economic or geopolitical uncertainty at the time.
Beyond the top five and bottom five in MOI, other areas of New York experienced some significant market shifts in May as well.
Tompkins County: MOI More Than Double
Home to college town Ithaca, the area experienced a 104.3% increase year-over-year in its MOI, plus an almost 100% increase in active listings and 25% more new listings. Meanwhile, the median sales price in the area dipped 30% to $325,000 and sales declined 17%.
The trend didn’t just start in May, however–in four of the last five months, the Tompkins area has seen an over 100% year-over-year increase in its MOI. This has caused the MOI to more than double, going from 2.2 in January to 4.7 in May.
Jefferson County: A Slowdown That’s Accelerating
Jefferson County is following a similar path, with MOI up 63.9% year-over-year in May. What’s notable is how quickly the trend picked up speed:
- January: +6.1% YoY
- February: +6.7% YoY
- March: +33.3% YoY
- April: +58.6% YoY
- May: +63.9% YoY
That acceleration pushed Jefferson’s MOI from 3.5 in January to 5.9 in May, which is a clear signal of a cooling market.
Madison, Yates and Cayuga each also saw major year-over-year increases in their MOIs, ranging from around 66% to 83%. Potential causes for this could be the massive spikes in active inventory seen in all five counties, as well as high numbers of new listings.
On the other hand, several counties also saw significant decreases in their MOI year over year, including Hamilton County with a 22.8% decrease in May. Montgomery experienced a similar decrease of 22.7%, followed by Franklin and Fulton at around 15%. Compared to markets with growing MOI, these markets each had a declining number of active listings, signaling that the market is picking up.
How to Leverage MOI to Find Your Dream Home
At the end of the day, MOI is only part of the picture when it comes to homebuying, but it can be a helpful tool to understand the local market landscape.
In areas where MOI rates are high, buyers likely have more choice and more time to find a home that’s right for them. But in markets where incoming homes are scarce, buyers should be prepared to move fast to get the home of their dreams. Luckily for New York homebuyers, there are options for both in just about any area of the state.
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