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Home Affordability

Home Prices are Down but Interest Rates are Up. What is the Impact on Buying Power?

Patti Cosgarea by Patti Cosgarea
October 12, 2022
in Affordability, Buying a Home, Expert advice, Mortgages
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Home prices in Canada are dropping but borrowing costs are snowballing. The inflation correction initiated by the Bank of Canada has led to five interest rate increases to date and the next announcement is scheduled for later this month. Although these interest rates have caused downward pressure on home prices in many cities across the country, the growing cost of borrowing means Canadians are qualifying for less when stress-tested. Some prospective buyers are trying to time the market and planning to enter when home prices dip another X%, but are rising interest rates the true culprit here?

Here’s How the Stress Test Determines What You Can Afford to Borrow

When a buyer wants to take out a mortgage, the lender will “stress test” the buyer. This process ensures that the buyer can afford the amount borrowed even if at renewal the interest rate has risen. In the case of a variable mortgage, it’s to ensure that if your monthly payment fluctuates, you’ll be able to afford it at its peak. To determine your qualifying rate, a lender will stress test you against current rates plus 2%. Today, the average fixed rate is roughly between 5 – 6.14%, depending on the lender. 

  • Read: Variable of Fixed-Rate Mortgage? 4 Tips to Help You Decide Which to Choose While Interest Rates are Rising

The real estate industry is calling on the OFSI, the regulator of the stress test, to change the process and loosen mortgage qualifying rules to give buyers more purchasing power. However, there has been no word that the stress test will change, although the next review of the process is scheduled for December. 

The Real Impact of Rising Rates

It feels like a bit of a chicken and egg scenario – buyers are hoping that as home prices fall affordability will increase, but we’re still expecting to see interest rates rise. Generally speaking, for every 1% that the stress test increases, buyers qualify for about 10% less for a mortgage.

So what does this all mean for what you can afford? According to Ratehub.ca’s mortgage affordability calculator, If you have a household income of $100,000 per year, a fixed-rate of 5% amortized over 25 years, you would qualify for approximately $416,000, assuming a 10% down payment and property taxes of around $5,000 per year. If interest rates were to rise another .5%, your affordability would dip down to about $390,000. 

You Can Still Maximize Your Affordability

Building on our previous example, if a home price was $416,000 and interest rates rise by 1%, then the purchase price of our $416,000 home would have to drop by 9.9% in the same period to still be affordable. 

The reality of the market is there is never a “right” time to buy, but there are steps you can take to prepare yourself and maximize your affordability. 

  1. Secure a mortgage pre-approval: If you’re considering buying in the next four months, secure a pre-approval before interest rates rise again. It’s free, fast, and will ensure you are as prepared as you can be. 
  2. Consider a variable-rate mortgage: If your budget allows for some flexibility, a variable-rate may help you save money in the long run as these rates tend to be a little lower. Currently, it’s getting more difficult to qualify for a variable rate but shop around with lenders to best understand all your options. You could also negotiate for a variable rate with a fixed monthly payment option to help establish more consistency with your household expenses. 
  3. Pay off existing debts: If your debt service ratio is affecting your overall purchasing power, this might be the right time to create a financial plan to expedite paying down your debts. 
  4. Save for a larger down payment: The more you put down towards a home, the less you have to qualify to borrow for a mortgage. If you have wiggle room in your debt service ratio, you may be able to use a home-equity line of credit or another type of credit to maximize your down payment. 

We’re here to help! We have qualified agents in your area ready to help you understand what you can afford and find you the home of your dreams, whatever your budget may be. Download our free Buyer’s Guide and contact us today. 

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Patti Cosgarea

Patti Cosgarea

Patti Cosgarea is an accomplished public relations professional with a passion for digital communications and all things real estate. She dedicates her creative prowess to crafting compelling content that empowers and guides North Americans on their real estate journeys. With a keen eye for detail and a knack for storytelling, Patti ensures that Zoocasa's message resonates with its audience, whether it’s first-time home buyers or experienced investors, making complex real estate concepts accessible to all. Her love for real estate extends to her personal life. When she’s not analyzing Canadian and U.S. real estate data, you can find her wielding a hammer and paintbrush, renovating her townhouse in Kitchener. These DIY projects showcase her creativity and passion for design, learning as she goes to offer her insights to others working on transforming their house into a home. Patti’s real estate insights and articles have been published in BNN Bloomberg, CTV News, the Globe and Mail, and her interviews and quotes about current market conditions can be found on the National Post, Business in Vancouver, Global News and more.

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