Following a slower-than-expected spring market, the Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its housing market forecast for 2024. Previously, CREA predicted national home sales would reach 492,083 by the end of the year. However, they have now adjusted this figure to just 472,395 home sales. Home price expectations have also been scaled back, with CREA now expecting the average price to hit $694,393 by the end of the year, instead of the $710,468 it previously predicted.
“The second half of 2024 is widely expected to see the beginnings of a slow and gradual return of buyers into the housing market,” said James Mabey, Chair of CREA. “Those buyers will face a considerably different shopping experience depending on where they are in Canada, from multiple offers in places like Calgary, to the most inventory to choose from in over a decade in places like Toronto. Wherever you live, or might like to, you’ll need a solid game plan, so contact a REALTOR® in your area today.”
June Sales Sluggish Across the Country
Though seasonally adjusted national home sales rose by 3.7% from May, non-seasonally adjusted statistics show that housing activity was sluggish in June. Nationally, home sales fell by 10.9%, with Greater Vancouver, Greater Toronto, Quebec CMA, Fraser Valley, Calgary, and Edmonton all seeing month-over-month decreases of over 10%.
Saint John, Newfoundland & Labrador, Thunder Bay, and Saguenay CMA were the only areas where month-over-month sales increased. Among those, Thunder Bay experienced the largest increase, with sales rising by 38.1% from May, followed by Saint John with a 6% increase and Newfoundland & Labrador with a 2.7% increase.
It’s not unusual for sales activity to ease off during the summer months, with the two main peaks of housing activity being in the spring and fall. The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate announcement is on July 24 and will play a key role in determining whether more buyers will enter the market this year.
New Listings Slow After Spring Surge
New listings have been increasing steadily across the country since spring, but this momentum finally slowed down in June. Nationally, non-seasonally adjusted new listings dropped to 87,736 in June—a 12% decrease from May. The greatest inventory decreases were seen on the East Coast and Quebec, with Halifax-Dartmouth, Saint John, Quebec CMA, and Montreal new listings dropping month-over-month by 20% or more.
In Ontario, Ottawa, and Kitchener-Waterloo, new listings decreased the most from May, by 19% and 13% respectively. Greater Toronto did not see as large of a drop as many other markets, with new listings falling by just 3% from May to 17,964.
However, across the country supply levels have generally improved compared to this time last year. New listings in Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver have increased year-over-year by 13.2% and 7.2% respectively. Additionally, many Ontario markets, such as Kitchener-Waterloo, Windsor-Essex, and Hamilton-Burlington, are also experiencing annual gains.
Favourable Buying Conditions As Ontario Home Prices Flattening Out
As competition has eased across much of the country, benchmark prices have either remained flat or dropped in many major markets. Prospective buyers in Hamilton-Burlington may find now a good time to buy, as the benchmark price has decreased by 2.1% from May to $849,900. This is the lowest benchmark price in Hamilton-Burlington since early this year.
Similarly, in Kitchener-Waterloo, the benchmark price fell month-over-month by 1.4% to $741,400, representing the largest month-over-month decline in the region since last year. Other cities with a more than 0.5% drop in their month-over-month benchmark price include Windsor-Essex, Saint John, Ottawa, and Regina.
But not all markets are following this trend. In the highly competitive Prairie markets, prices are still climbing. Notably, Edmonton’s benchmark price rose by 2.1% to $401,100. This is the first time Edmonton’s benchmark price has exceeded $400,000 since 2022. Saskatoon and Winnipeg also experienced modest month-over-month price increases of 1.6% and 1.2% respectively.
It’s important for buyers to consider regional differences when making purchasing decisions, as local market conditions can significantly impact affordability and competitiveness. If you have questions about your local market, give us a call today!
