More Canadians are trading big-city life for smaller, faster-growing cities in search of more space, shorter commutes, or simply more house for their money. It’s tempting to assume that home prices follow wherever people go: more residents, more competition, higher prices, and less room to negotiate. But a closer look at the supply data tells a different story: that population growth and price growth barely move together.
To find out where booming population growth is actually handing sellers the upper hand, and where it’s leaving room for buyers to negotiate, Zoocasa used Statistics Canada data to identify the 7 fastest-growing census metropolitan areas (CMAs), then analyzed their June 2026 sales-to-new-listings ratios (SNLR) alongside their 2023-2025 population growth.
For context, Canada’s CMAs grew 4.63% in two years, rising from 29.7 million to 31 million people. Over that same period, the country’s two largest markets grew more slowly, Toronto by 3.92% and Vancouver by 3.97%, which makes it easier to see just how much faster these cities are expanding.
What SNLR tells you:
- Under 40%: Buyer’s market. New listings outweigh sales, and buyers have more choice.
- 40% to 60%: Balanced market. Demand and supply are roughly even.
- Over 60%: Seller’s market. Demand exceeds supply, and sellers have the advantage.
High-Demand Cities Where Sellers Have the Upper Hand
Several markets in the dataset are seeing strong price growth, and all four are in Alberta or Saskatchewan.
Lethbridge is the tightest market in the dataset: just 232 new listings against 188 sales in June alone, an 81% SNLR, and prices up 17.1%. What makes this notable is that Lethbridge has the lowest population growth in the dataset, at just 6.12%. Prices aren’t rising because of a population boom. They’re rising because supply isn’t keeping up even with modest demand, a textbook sign of a chronic housing shortage.
Regina, with a 7.09% population growth and Saskatoon, with a 7.26% population growth, show a similar pattern: solid but unspectacular population inflows paired with tight listing inventory, pushing prices up 12% and 11.1%, respectively. Both remain highly favourable conditions for anyone looking to sell and lock in equity gains.
Edmonton rounds out the group with strong population growth (+8.43%) and high transaction volume, 2,746 sales against 4,475 listings. Alberta’s capital city still favours sellers with a 61.4% SNLR and a healthy 10.2% price gain. It’s less a supply crisis than Lethbridge and more a case of broad-based, sustainable demand.
Fast-Growing Cities Where Buyers Can Find a Deal
Out of the seven fastest-growing cities, only two have actually become cheaper since 2024.
Oshawa has seen the steepest correction by far. Prices are down 19%, falling from an average of $896,491 in 2024 to $726,544 in 2026, a swing of nearly $170,000. Oshawa sits within the broader Toronto-area market, where inventory has experienced record highs in recent years, and buyers have more homes to choose from. That kind of region-wide softening gives Oshawa buyers alternatives closer to the core, which takes some of the pressure off demand in the outer market.
Meanwhile, Calgary has cooled more moderately, down 8.1%, with average prices slipping from $623,182 to $572,500, a discount of roughly $50,700 off 2024 peak pricing.
For buyers, a correction like this means more than just a lower price tag. It typically comes with more room to negotiate: inspection contingencies, financing conditions, and flexible closing dates are easier to secure when sellers are competing for offers rather than the other way around. Of course, lower entry prices also mean smaller down payments and lighter monthly mortgage payments.
How Construction Comes into Play
The missing piece is construction. Population growth only pushes prices up when new home building doesn’t keep pace with it.
- Moncton kept building. According to the city, residential development there hit a record high in 2025: $208.5 million invested across 436 permits, adding 1,367 new housing units, the most ever built in a single year. That’s why prices barely moved despite the fastest population growth in the group. Builders added enough new homes to house the people making the move to Moncton.
- Calgary built even more. The city of Calgary reported issuing building permits worth $7.4 billion and reaching 27,684 housing starts in 2025. This was a 13.6% jump from 24,369 in 2024, driven largely by apartments (up 28.8%) alongside “missing middle” housing like townhouses and duplexes. That flood of new supply helps explain why prices actually fell 8.1% despite nearly 156,000 new residents. When enough new homes hit the market, even a population boom isn’t enough to push prices up.
- Lethbridge’s slower pace. Meanwhile, Lethbridge reported just 620 housing starts in 2025, only 3.68% more than the 598 starts in 2024, a growth rate that ranks 16th among Alberta municipalities. With so little new construction, even modest population growth was enough to squeeze the existing supply and send prices climbing.
The Bottom Line
Don’t judge a market by its population growth alone; supply and demand are always a clearer picture. Moncton and Calgary show that a city can grow fast and still stay affordable, or even see prices fall, if construction keeps pace. However, Lethbridge shows the opposite: even slow growth can spike prices if construction can’t keep up. That’s a market where sellers hold the cards.
It’s also worth asking why people are flocking to these cities in the first place. Fast population growth usually points to real job opportunities or relative affordability, which is exactly what makes these markets worth watching.
All in all, before you buy or sell in a fast-growing city, look past the population numbers. Check the SNLR and the construction pipeline instead. That’s what actually tells you who holds the leverage.
Ready to move to a new city or neighbourhood? Start your home search with Zoocasa today.
