The fall market gained momentum in October as home sales growth continued across Canada. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales rose by 16.7% from September to 44,041 sales. This represents a 30% increase from 2023, marking a notable shift from last year’s quiet fall market when many buyers took to the sidelines amid rising interest rates.
“The jump in home sales last month was definitely an October surprise, although with the big interest rate cut of 50 basis points announced during the last week of the month, the increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “There probably won’t be another rush of new supply like that until next spring, and at that point, mortgage rates should be close to their expected lows, as well. With that in mind, you can think of the October numbers as a sort of preview for what we might expect to see next year.”
Home Sales Soar Compared to Last Year
With the best 5-year fixed mortgage rates just below 4% and the market balancing out, home buyers in October 2024 are in a much stronger position compared to October 2023. As a result, year-over-year home sales increased by over 30% in several major markets.
Notably, Canada’s two largest markets, Vancouver and Toronto, experienced significant sales gains. In Greater Vancouver, year-over-year sales increased by 32.4% to 2,629 sales, while in Greater Toronto, year-over-year home sales increased by 43.3% to 6,658 sales.
In the Prairies, Edmonton saw the greatest sales gains, with a year-over-year increase of 35.8%. Saskatoon followed with an 18.8% increase, while Calgary experienced the smallest rise in sales at just 3.7%.
Outside of Toronto, Ontario’s real estate market experienced robust home sales growth in Ottawa and Hamilton-Burlington, where year-over-year home sales increased by 44.7% and 42% respectively.
Sales gains were also notable on a month-over-month basis, with home sales increasing by 42.7% in Vancouver and 33.3% in Toronto. Many other markets also saw monthly sales increases of over 10%, including Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal, Halifax-Dartmouth, and Kitchener-Waterloo.
Home Prices Remain Largely Unchanged As Market Balances
Although new listings were generally down in October, sustained inventory growth over the past several months has kept the market balanced, preventing any dramatic changes in benchmark home prices.
The national benchmark price decreased to $707,700 in October, marking a 0.8% decline from September and a 2.7% drop compared to 2023. Similarly, benchmark prices in Vancouver and Toronto declined both month-over-month and year-over-year. Vancouver’s benchmark price fell by 0.6% from September to $1,172,200, while Toronto’s dropped by 0.8% to $1,060,300.
Most major markets saw less than a 1% change in their benchmark prices from last month. For example, Calgary’s benchmark price declined by 0.8% to $577,700, while Montreal’s rose slightly by 0.17% to $544,300.
However, Kitchener-Waterloo and Saint John stood out as exceptions to this trend. In Kitchener-Waterloo, the benchmark price dropped by 2.1% to $713,800, while in Saint John, it increased by 6.4% to $337,600.
Despite Fewer New Listings, Inventory Remains Stable
The majority of markets experienced fewer new listings in October than in September, however, CREA notes that new supply remains at some of the highest levels since mid-2022. This allows buyers to have a wider selection of properties and to browse at a more leisurely pace.
Nationally, new listings fell 10.9% month-over-month but are up 7.4% compared to last year. Toronto and Vancouver also follow this trend, with new listings down 15.3% and 13.5% from last month, but up 6.5% and 11.6% compared to last year, respectively.
Calgary posted one of the largest year-over-year inventory boosts, with new listings up 22.2% compared to 2023, though this was an 11.2% decrease from September. In contrast, Victoria experienced the largest month-over-month drop in inventory, with new listings falling by 19.4%.
If you’re preparing to enter the market, whether that’s through buying, selling, or both, it’s important to speak with a local realtor to learn about market conditions in your specific area. If you’re ready, give us a call today to speak with a qualified agent!
