May’s active month of sales continued into June, though not as strongly, with positive year-over-year gains seen in more than half of local markets. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported 50,155 national home sales in June, a 4.7% year-over-year increase – the largest in two years. Sales were up year-over-year by more than 20% in Fraser Valley, Greater Vancouver, Hamilton-Burlington, and Niagara Region.
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Month-over-month, sales are starting to slow down in several large markets, likely a result of the uncertainty that the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes have brought. Montreal CMA, Greater Toronto, Niagara Region, Hamilton-Burlington, and Greater Vancouver experienced month-over-month price drops of 18.1%, 17%, 14.3%, 12.4%, and 12.4% respectively. Smaller markets are still seeing sales growth with Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Fraser Valley, Winnipeg and Saint John increasing substantially month-over-month.
Prices Expected to Stabilize as Growth Slows
After several months of more than 1% month-over-month price gains, with April’s 2.5% price growth the largest this year, the national average price increased by only 0.8% from May, now at $760,600.
“With sales levelling off near historically average levels and new listings finally starting to play catch up, housing markets appear to be settling down. History suggests the price side of things will respond to this with only a slight lag,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
In May, several local markets experienced month-over-month price gains of over or around 2%, however, in June most markets didn’t exceed 1%, with some even declining. Hamilton-Burlington dropped the most month-over-month by 0.5%, followed by Montreal CMA at 0.3% and Quebec City and Winnipeg both at 0.2%. The largest month-over-month price growth was seen in Saint John at an impressive 3.6%, followed by Calgary with 1.4% growth and Greater Vancouver with 1.3% growth.
Supply Recovering but Still Below the Long-Term Average
“Housing markets appear to be stabilizing heading into the summer following some big ups and downs over the last year. Most importantly, the recovery in new listings over the last few months will give buyers more choice and should help to slow price growth over the second half of the year,” said Chair of CREA Larry Cerqua. This stability can be seen in the months of supply, which remained unchanged from May, at 3.1 months, however, this is below the long-term average of 5 months.
New listings are down 11.1% from 2022, but the gap is shrinking in several markets. Notably, Ontario and Prince Edward Island were the only provinces to see month-over-month increases in new listings, by 2.1% and 18.9% respectively. Several local markets also experienced a boost in new listings; Niagara Region was up month-over-month by 7.4%, Kitchener-Waterloo was up month-over-month by 5.2%, Calgary was up month-over-month by 4.6%, and the Greater Toronto Area was up month-over-month by 4.4%.
If you’re preparing to enter the summer market, whether that’s through buying, selling, or both, it’s important to speak with a local realtor to learn about market conditions in your specific area. If you’re ready, give us a call today to speak with a qualified agent!
