A lot can change in the real estate market in just a few months, so over the course of 10 years one would expect the changes to be even more drastic. However, the Canadian real estate market has always ebbed and flowed, and conditions ten years ago were not that entirely different from today.
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In 2013, the economy was still recovering from the global financial crisis in 2008, and this left many buyers optimistic but cautious. Similarly, buyers today are still adjusting to life after the pandemic, and are gaining confidence to re-enter the market after several interest rate hikes. Average home prices were nearly half of what they are today, but buyer mentality, mortgage rates, unaffordability and demographics were not as opposing and could provide an indication of future trends.
Prices
Then: Consistent price growth
In January 2013, the national average price was $365,700, a slight dip from May 2012’s peak of $375,600 according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The national average home price grew steadily over the course of 2013 and reached $380,600 in December 2013 – a 4.1% increase from the start of the year.
Heading into 2014, prices did not steeply incline or decline and maintained a moderate pace of growth, likely the effect of moderate economic and income growth for the country. Though in retrospect these prices seem low, at the time they were at the highest they’d ever been and there were cries of unaffordability. According to the Bank of Canada’s Housing Affordability Index, unaffordability increased from Q1 of 2013 to Q4 of 2013 and has since never gone as low as in Q1 of 2013.
Local markets also saw predictable price growth. The benchmark price for a home in the GTA in January 2013 was $469,800, and by December 2013 it reached $501,500 – a 6.8% increase. In Greater Vancouver, the benchmark price in January 2013 was $635,100 and by December 2013 the benchmark price rose to $665,000 – a 4.7% increase. Presently, prices are not seeing such sustained price growth, and most markets are just nearing or just below last summer’s levels.
Now: Prices stabilizing after pandemic spike
After skyrocketing to $855,800 in March 2022, the national average price sharply declined for the rest of that year, eventually sinking to $705,000 in January 2023 – the lowest since August 2021 according to CREA. However, in February of this year, buyer mentality shifted as many previously sidelined homebuyers entered the market and prices started to climb. This increased market activity, combined with low inventory, pushed prices continuously upward until reaching $760,600 in June 2023. The extreme ups and downs of recent years are outliers, meaning if prices are stabilizing, we might expect a more predictable, slower rate of growth to come in the future.
As a result of interest rate hikes, the Bank of Canada has increased rates three times this year, price inclines are cooling off. In June, several large markets like Montreal CMA, Greater Toronto, Greater Vancouver, and Hamilton-Burlington experienced month-over-month price drops. In Toronto, home prices decreased across all property types in July 2023, while more affordable markets like Calgary and Saskatoon were less afflicted by interest rate hikes and have experienced steady month-over-month price increases.
Demographics
Then: Homebuyers heading to urban centres
The introduction of stricter mortgage lending guidelines in 2012 slowed down some buyer activity, but interest renewed in 2013 and brought prospective buyers back into the market. Low-interest rates also helped to push first-time homebuyers into the market as mortgage payments remained affordable and predictable. Major markets like Greater Vancouver, Greater Toronto, Calgary, and Hamilton-Burlington were the most popular areas of interest, though there was still some hesitancy among buyers.
Now: Newcomers and first-time buyers creating demand across the country
One of the largest stories of 2023 so far was the Canadian population hitting the 40 million mark for the first time, in large part due to record immigration numbers. As the population increases, and the number of people needing homes likewise increases, available inventory decreases. This is increasing competition for buyers and driving up prices across the country.
Also fueling the competition are first-time homebuyers, who largely stayed on the sidelines in 2022 but have now adjusted to the prospect of interest rate hikes and are eagerly participating in the market. Buyers today value affordability and larger living spaces, which is leading to heightened interest in smaller maritime cities and the prairies.
Mortgage Rates
Then: Interest rates at historically low levels
In 2013, the overnight lending rate was at 1.0% and stayed at 1.0% until January 2015 when the rate decreased to 0.75%. The overnight lending rate didn’t rise above 1.0% until February 2018 when it was raised to 1.25%. This is drastically lower than the current lending rate – at 5.0% – and created favourable borrowing conditions for variable-rate holders.
- Read: Renting vs. Buying: Where Monthly Mortgage Payments are Comparable to Monthly Rent Across Canada
Fixed-rate holders, on the other hand, were not as far away from today’s rates. At the beginning of 2013, the interest on a 5-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.24% and in September 2013 it increased to 5.34% before going back down to 5.24% at the beginning of 2014.
Now: Highest borrowing costs in more than 10 years
Today’s economy is in a more tumultuous state than 10 years ago. The pandemic caused prices to rise during 2021 and 2022, which in turn, has resulted in rising inflation. To combat inflation, the Bank of Canada has increased rates 10 times since March 2022, and this is tightening mortgage affordability. The overnight lending rate is currently at 5.0% and the average 5-year fixed rate is at 6.79%. If the past is any indication of the future, mortgage rates will start to gradually lower in the next few years as they did in 2014 and 2015.
According to Ratehub.ca’s mortgage payment calculator, a homeowner who bought a home at the June national average of $760,600 and put 10% down with a 5-year variable rate of 5.95% amortized over 25 years has a monthly mortgage payment of $4,495.
House Type
Then: Condo boom
According to Statistics Canada, in 2012 and 2013 apartments accounted for the largest majority of new construction, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto where demand for affordable housing was greatest. In the fourth quarter of 2013, condo sales were up 21% year-over-year in Toronto according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, and in Vancouver, sales of apartment properties increased by 68.7% from December 2012 to December 2013 according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
Now: Condo demand still hot
After waiting on the sidelines most of last year, first-time buyers are eager to dip their toes into the housing market and condos offer one affordable way to do that. As Waterloo Region Sales Representative Sharon Forbes put it, speaking about the Waterloo Region market: “Rather than looking at buying their forever home, many first-time buyers are just trying to get into the market and condos offer that.”
Compared to other property types in Toronto, condo apartments experienced the largest year-over-year growth in July at 26%. Similarly, in Vancouver apartment sales were up year-over-year by 20.7% and experienced the largest year-over-year price growth among property types.
Looking to the past can be one indicator of what’s to come, however, the real estate market is influenced by a number of factors and it’s best to speak with a real estate professional on local conditions. Give us a call today to learn more about the ever-changing market and get advice to achieve your real estate goals.
