In the latter half of 2017, the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, coupled with new mortgage rules and rising interest rates, ushered in considerable change for the Toronto real estate market. Sales plunged by double digits while homeowners, panicked at the prospect of losing hard-won equity, listed en masse while prospective buyers stuck to the sidelines.
This surge of new inventory quickly overwhelmed slower sales activity, creating a market phenomenon that, just a year prior, would have been unfathomable in Toronto – a buyers’ market.
But while the market’s changing fortunes garnered plenty of media attention, Toronto’s newly-minted buyers’ status didn’t mean houses were suddenly a bargain – however, buyers were having an easier time, encountering fewer bidding wars and enjoying greater choice.
Fast forward to January 2018 market: A 22-per-cent year-over-year decrease in sales and a 17.4-per-cent boost in listings indicate balanced conditions in the Toronto market are sticking around.
What is a Buyers’ or Sellers’ Market?
But what determines whether a market is in buyers’, sellers’, or balanced territory? While these definitions don’t indicate how affordable a market is, they do reveal how competitive it will be to sell or purchase a home.
To gauge the level of competition in a market, analysts use what’s called the sales-to-new-listings ratio. This is a metric that can be used to measures markets of any size, from a national scale to a specific neighbourhood.
The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of sales by the number of new listings within a certain time frame in that region: for example, the number of sales and the number of new listings that came to the market in January in Toronto.
A low ratio between 0 – 40 per cent indicates fewer homes listed for sale are being purchased, and is considered a buyers’ market.
A ratio between 40 – 60 per cent indicates roughly half of all homes listed for sale are being purchased, and is considered a balanced market.
A ratio above 60 per cent means most of the homes listed for sale are being purchased, and is considered a sellers’ market.
As overall market sales and prices can fluctuate over time, monitoring the sales-to-new-listing ratio is an accurate way of determining just what is happening in a specific region, and whether demand has changed over time.
Check out the animated graphs below to see which Toronto neighbourhoods are in buyers’, balanced, or sellers’ territory by home type, and how demand has shifted over the past five years:
Buyers and Sellers Markets in Toronto by Neighbourhood
Houses (Semi + Detached)
Municipalities that went from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market in the last year (became much easier to buy)
- C07 (Willowdale)
- C11 (Leaside, Thorncliffe)
- E10 (Centennial Scarborough, West Hill)
- W03 (Eglinton West, Rockcliffe-Smythe)
Municipalities that went from a sellers’ market to a balanced market (became slightly easier to buy)
- C15 (Don Valley Village, Bayview Village)
- E04 (Wexford Maryville, Dorset Park)
- E05 (L’Amoreaux, Tam O’Shanter-Sullivan)
- E08 (Scarborough Village)
- W04 (Mount Dennis, Yorkdale-Glen Park)
Municipalities that went from a balanced market to a buyers’ market in the last year (became slightly easier to buy)
- C04 (Bedford Park, Lawrence Park South)
- C10 (Mount Pleasant East)
- C13 (Banbury-Don Mills, Victoria Village)
- C14 (Willowdale East)
- E02 (The Beaches, Woodbine Corridor)
Municipalities that went from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market (became much harder to buy)
None
Municipalities that went from a balanced market to a sellers’ market (became slightly harder to buy)
None
Municipalities that went from a buyers’ market to a balanced market (became slightly harder to buy)
- C09 (Rosedale-Moore Park)
- E07 (Miliken, Agincourt)
Condo Apartments
Municipalities that went from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market in the last year (became much easier to buy)
- E05 (L’Amoreaux, Tam O’Shanter-Sullivan)
Municipalities that went from a sellers’ market to a balanced market (became slightly easier to buy)
- C06 (Bathurst Manor)
- C07 (Willowdale West)
- C13 (Banbury-Don Mills, Parkwoods-Donalda)
- C14 (Willowdale East)
- C15 (Don Valley Village, Bayview Village)
- E07 (Miliken, Agincourt)
- E10 (Centennial Scarborough, Rouge)
- W01 (High Park-Swansea)
- W05 (Glenfield-Jane Heights, Black Creek)
- W08 (Etobicoke West Mall, Islington City Centre West)
Municipalities that went from a balanced market to a buyers’ market in the last year (became slightly easier to buy)
- C03 (Oakwood-Vaughan, Forest Hill South)
Municipalities that went from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market (became much harder to buy)
- E01 (North Riverdale, South Riverdale)
Municipalities that went from a balanced’ market to a sellers’ market (became slightly harder to buy in)
- E09 (Morningside, Woburn)
- W10 (Rexdale-Kipling, West Humber-Claireville)
Municipalities that went from a buyers’ market to a balanced market (became slightly harder to buy)
- C02 (Annex, Yonge-St. Clair)
