Zoocasa
Sold Prices
Map
Market Insights
  • Blog Home
  • For Buyers
  • For Sellers
  • Real Estate News
  • Mortgage News in Canada
  • Free Guides (PDF)
  • Real Estate Infographics
Zoocasa
  • Blog Home
  • For Buyers
  • For Sellers
  • Real Estate News
  • Mortgage News in Canada
  • Free Guides (PDF)
  • Real Estate Infographics
Home Affordability Reports

Will Price Increases in the GTA Slow in the Spring?

Daniel Crook by Daniel Crook
March 24, 2022
in Affordability Reports, Infographics, Toronto Real Estate
Reading Time: 4 mins read
Share
Tweet
Share
0 Shares

The Canadian housing market over the winter has been dominated by two narratives – record low inventory and consistently increasing prices. Active listings were at the lowest levels in more than two decades for a time during this winter, leading to an incredibly competitive marketplace. The average price of a home in Toronto has risen by 27.7% year over year in February even as supply increased by 77% month over month.

The market has also been assisted by sustained historically low interest rates as well. This cheap cost of borrowing has been a factor in why price growth has continued throughout the winter. 

However, as the supply trend in February suggests, we look to be headed in the direction of a slightly more balanced market. The data for last month leads to a sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) of 64%, down 9% month over month, pointing towards the market looking a little more favourable for buyers in the coming spring. More balance in the market is likely to slow price escalations but not necessarily reverse them.

Prices set to rise by over 4% by the summer

According to 10 year historical data from TRREB, Zoocasa projects the average price of a home in the GTA to hit $1,390,124 in June 2022, an increase of 4.16%, and a dollar increase of $26,194.20. Sales volume is projected to reach 13,638 transactions, up 22.8% from June of last year.

To determine these projections, Zoocasa analyzed sales and prices for the months between February and June for the period between 2011 and 2021. The percentage difference was then calculated for average prices and sales volumes each year. Those averages were then applied to price and sales data to project June 2022 average price and sales numbers. A high and low range was also calculated by averaging the percentage difference in the top five and bottom five years and applying that to the June 2022 data.

On the lower end of the range, prices are projected to increase 0.21% to $1,337,294 with sales down to 11,538, a dip of 15.3%.  On the high end, prices are projected to increase 8.12% to $1,442,955, with sales improving by 13.3% to 15,739. It is worth noting, these trends and estimates tend to be heavily impacted by the market correction in April 2017, where prices dropped around 20% over a few months as a result of the implementation of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan. 

What does this mean for home buyers and sellers?

As our predictions suggest, pricing for houses, while still increasing, would slow from its current breakneck pace moving into the Spring market period. February’s average price increase for a house in the GTA was 7% month over month, from $1,242,793 to $1,334,544. With improved inventory, the trend towards a more balanced market should provide some encouragement for buyers who have been feeling fatigued after a tough winter. 

Zoocasa realtor, Claudio Castro, highlights: “A lot of what happened in the market over the winter can be attributed to buyers knowing that our era of historically-low interest rates was coming to a close. And, as the Bank of Canada recently announced, overnight lending rates have been increased by 25 basis points. So I think what we’ll see in the next few months is people acting according to that rate hike. A lot of that demand in the last few months has been driven by locking in interest rates.

While we won’t see a huge jump in new listings overnight, and we’re very much still in a seller’s market, we are starting to see some inventory drip through, which should provide relieffor buyers who have found themselves a little tired due to the record low stock and high prices throughout the winter. We’re still a long way away from a buyer’s market, but they’re beginning to see some more leverage as we head into more balanced  conditions.”

TRREB’s initial prediction of 12% price growth throughout the year in the GTA has already been surpassed in the first two months of the year by the actual figure of 15%. With rising rates, price uncertainty could be a big feature going into the Spring market, but the numbers do suggest that they will continue to rise in the coming months, just not at the same pace.. In our 2022 housing market predictions, we noted a key factor on the market would be rising home prices and the influence increased rates could have.

If you’re considering buying a home this Spring, your first step should be to book a free buyer’s consultation. One of our agents will walk you through the home buying process, as well as providing ideas to find the right property for you given what you’re looking for and your budget.

Considering Getting Into The Market This Spring?
Sign Up for a Free Buyer Consultation

Previous Post

Tips for Building Your Network as a Real Estate Agent

Next Post

Why Ottawa Remains a Hot Seller’s Market During the Pandemic

Daniel Crook

Daniel Crook

Daniel Crook is a Content Marketing Specialist at Zoocasa. Daniel’s insights provide home buyers and sellers with knowledge of local and national markets to aid them in their real estate pursuits. Daniel covers a multitude of topics, ranging from mortgages to local market trends, as well as data-driven reports uncovering national trends. His work has been featured in outlets such as BNN Bloomberg, CTV News, the National Post and the Globe and Mail. You can find all his latest insights on the Zoocasa blog.

Related Posts

Just for Fun

8 Best Malls in the GTA to Beat the Heat This Summer 

July 24, 2025
toronto skyline from ontario place
Toronto Real Estate

6 Ways Toronto Real Estate Transformed Over the Past 10 Years

July 14, 2025
Toronto Real Estate

Longer Days, Slower Sales as June Market Offers Buyer Advantage: TRREB

July 7, 2025

Blog Search

No Result
View All Result

Newsletter Sign-up

Join a community of 130,000+ subscribers. Don't miss important real estate news, market data, and buying and selling tips.

Recent Articles

A woman sitting on a bed, looking relaxed, with a fan blowing gently beside her.

How to Keep Your Bed Cool in the Summer and Sleep Through the Heat

July 25, 2025

8 Best Malls in the GTA to Beat the Heat This Summer 

July 24, 2025
mountains, cherry blossom and vancouver skyline

6 Moments That Made Vancouver’s Market the Real Estate Rollercoaster Ride of a Decade 

July 23, 2025

5 Ways Calgary Real Estate Transformed Over the Past 10 Years

July 23, 2025

Featured Listings

A black house perched on a rocky hill, surrounded by a clear blue sky and distant mountains.

Discover Canada’s Most Unique Homes: 14 Can’t-Miss Properties

July 17, 2025

6 Best Cities for Affordable Luxury Homes in Canada Under $1M

July 10, 2025

5 Canadian Cottage Regions That Make the Perfect U.S. Buyer Getaway 

June 15, 2025

From Skyline Views to Private Escapes: 5 Luxe Calgary Homes for Sale

June 10, 2025
first-time home buyer programs and rebates

Social Media

250 The Esplanade Suite 408 Toronto, ON M5A 4J5

Stay Connected

  • Blog Home
  • For Buyers
  • For Sellers
  • Real Estate News
  • Mortgage News in Canada
  • Free Guides (PDF)
  • Real Estate Infographics
No Result
View All Result

Zoocasa © 2007–2022. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA.