Historic winter storms took much of the blame for a sluggish start to Canada’s 2026 housing market, as sales, prices, and new listings all pulled back in January. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), 22,533 homes were sold across the country last month, a 16.2% decline from the 26,889 sales recorded in January 2025, and down from the 26,077 homes sold in December 2025. The national average home price settled at $652,941, a 2.6% decrease from $670,051 in January 2025 and below December’s average of $673,335. New listings also fell, dropping 6.2% y-o-y to 61,850.
Despite the broad retreat, CREA’s Senior Economist was careful to separate weather-driven weakness from any underlying shift in market direction. “The monthly decline in national home sales was driven primarily by less activity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario, suggesting that the story was probably more about a historic winter storm than a downshift in demand,” said Shaun Cathcart. “Notwithstanding the chilly start to the year, we continue to expect 2026 will ultimately be defined by pent-up demand from first-time buyers finally seeing a chance to enter the market.”
CREA Chair Valérie Paquin noted that sellers, at least, are not holding back. “We always say all real estate is local, and on occasion, including this January, that can mean the impact of local weather on the market,” she said. “In a repeat of 2025, new listings are showing up early to start the year, so sellers are eager to get going, but we may have to wait a bit longer to see how buyers react.”
Affordable Markets Continue to Outperform on Price
Smaller and more affordable markets once again led the country in price growth in January. Thunder Bay posted the strongest y-o-y gain, with prices rising 14.8% to $323,718. Trois-Rivières CMA followed with a 14.1% increase, bringing the average to $442,507, while Saguenay CMA rounded out the top three with a 10.5% climb to $366,240. These markets continue to draw buyers seeking value and affordability, particularly those priced out of Canada’s larger urban centres.
Price Drops in Canada’s High-Cost Markets
Some of Canada’s priciest markets continued to see price declines last month. The Niagara Region recorded the steepest y-o-y drop at 7.0%, with the average price falling to $603,363. Greater Toronto followed with a 6.5% decline to $973,289 — slipping below $1 million for the first time in recent memory. Hamilton–Burlington saw prices fall 5.6% to $781,757, and the Fraser Valley recorded a 5.3% decrease to $953,475, also dropping below the million-dollar mark. These ongoing corrections reflect persistent affordability pressures and buyer caution that have weighed on Southern Ontario and select western markets over the past year.
Sharp Sales Declines Hit Major Hubs in January
Greater Vancouver recorded the sharpest y-o-y sales decline of any major market in January, with transactions falling 29.0% from 1,554 to 1,104 units. The Fraser Valley was not far behind, with sales dropping 25.1%, and Greater Toronto saw a 19.3% decline, falling from 3,820 to 3,082 transactions. Edmonton also saw a significant pullback, with sales down 28.0% y-o-y to 1,237 units.
On the price side, Victoria stood out as a notable exception to broader provincial softness, with average prices rising 5.1% y-o-y to $1,017,410. Greater Toronto and the Fraser Valley, by contrast, saw prices fall 6.5% and 5.3% respectively, as buyer hesitation continued to weigh on demand in these high-cost regions.
New listings in Greater Toronto contracted 13.3% y-o-y to 10,774, adding to the sense that both buyers and sellers in the country’s largest market are taking a wait-and-see approach as the year gets underway.
Both Toronto and Vancouver continue to have an outsized influence on national housing data. As both markets navigate ongoing affordability challenges and softer demand, their performance will remain a key factor shaping the national picture heading into the spring.
Stability in Calgary, Appreciation in Edmonton
Alberta’s major markets both avoided the worst of January’s national pullback, but they got there in different ways. Calgary had sales resilience, recording 1,618 transactions, a 13.9% y-o-y decline that was shallower than the national average of 16.2%. Prices held virtually flat at $625,222, a 0.2% dip from January 2025, while the national average fell 2.6%.
Edmonton told a different story. Sales dropped more sharply, by 28.0% y-o-y, to 1,237 transactions, tracking closer to Vancouver than to Calgary. But where Edmonton stood out was on price, rising 3.7% year-over-year to $446,931, making it one of the stronger performers nationally on that front. At nearly $206,000 below the national average, Edmonton’s price point remains a powerful draw for buyers priced out of other major markets.
The Inventory Tug-of-War: Where Sellers are Jumping In (and Where They Aren’t)
National new listings declined 6.2% y-o-y to 61,850 in January, but the regional picture was highly uneven. Among markets where supply contracted, Sudbury saw the sharpest drop at 23.2%, followed by Thunder Bay at 21.4%, Niagara Region at 19.2%, and Greater Toronto at 13.3%.
Several markets pushed in the opposite direction, with sellers coming to market early in the new year. Saint John led all markets with a 15.6% y-o-y increase in new listings, followed by Ottawa at 12.3% and Montreal CMA at 7.8% (rising to 6,548 listings). As Paquin noted, the early influx of new supply suggests seller confidence remains intact — the question is whether buyers will follow suit once the weather clears.
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