Calgary is currently facing the lowest number of new listings it’s had in around 30 years and many cities in the surrounding region are experiencing the same market climate. Rate hikes have impacted buyers and sellers alike, and homes are trading hands at a much slower rate than they were this time last year.
With 2023 underway, we analyzed market competition across the Calgary region by comparing sales and new listing data for each region in January. This data was then used to determine the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) for the month, calculated by dividing the total sales by the number of new listings in each region. The SNLR is used to effectively show the level of demand and supply in each area, and help identify how much competition local buyers face with regard to supply. The SNLR can be broken down into three percentage parameters:
- An SNLR under 40% suggests a buyer’s market: where new listings outweigh and buyers have more options
- An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market: where demand and supply are balanced
- An SNLR over 60% means a seller’s market: where demand outpaces supply, benefiting sellers
Markets are Favouring Sellers
There are four areas that currently favour sellers: Airdrie, the Willow Creek Region, the Mountain View Region, and the City of Calgary. This marks a stark but not unexpected contrast from last year, where every area was in a seller’s market. However, the SNLRs in these areas have only changed by a few percentage points, even though the markets have shifted – Willow Creek’s SNLR has only decreased by 6%, while the Mountain View Region’s has decreased by just 8%.
While some of the seller’s markets haven’t experienced significant changes, many of the markets that now sit in balanced territory have had much larger drop-offs since last year. The Vulcan Region has dropped by 145% and now sits in a balanced market with an SNLR of 55%. The next largest decline is in the Bighorn region, dropping 56% to an SNLR of 54%. It’s clear to see that as rates increased throughout 2022, housing demand declined.
Little Luck for Buyers: Only One of the 11 Regions is Currently a Buyer’s Market
The only market currently benefiting buyers is the Wheatland Region, with an SNLR of 35%. It also has the second highest months of inventory at 5.92 months, up from last year’s figure of 2.21. Wheatland was also the market teetering on the edge of balance last January, with an SNLR of 61%. While it has technically seen the biggest shift in market type with the move from sellers to buyers market, it is experiencing similar market changes as many of the other areas in the Calgary region.
Not all areas in the Calgary region have experienced declining prices, despite the rate hikes. In Wheatland, prices have risen 3.8% to $396,542. The greatest increase has happened in Bighorn, where prices have grown by more than 22% to $1,005,903. Rocky Views and the Foothill Region’s prices fell by 12.2% and 19.3% respectively. Calgary is still one of the country’s more affordable markets, with an average home price of $520,900, it’s 16.8% below the national average of $626,318.
If you’re thinking of moving to Calgary, we’re here to help. Contact us today to speak to an agent in your area and don’t forget to subscribe to our newsletter for free updates on market insights and real estate news.
