The bigger the city, the higher the home price, right? Not necessarily. Chicago is the third-largest city in the country, but its median home price is half that of New York and Los Angeles. Chicago isn’t an outlier either. Other major cities have surprisingly low home prices given their size. So what’s their secret?
The Windy City was once one of the biggest cities in the world. In 1950, the city of Chicago had a population of 3.6 million, marking a 7% increase from 1940. Fast forward to 2020, and Chicago’s population has shrunk by 24.2% to 2.7 million. The resulting impact in the real estate market is a surplus of housing units relative to population growth, higher vacancy rates, and more moderate home price growth.
Shrinking populations in cities that were once major urban hubs have helped keep home prices relatively affordable across parts of the Rust Belt and the South. To explore this trend, Zoocasa analyzed U.S. Census data from 1950 to 2020, focusing on how long-term population declines have influenced housing affordability in key cities. This analysis highlights how population loss can suppress home price growth, especially when compared to cities of similar size that have continued to grow.
Why Chicago Is Still Affordable Despite Its Size
At $390,000, Chicago’s median home price is unbeatable for a city of nearly 3 million people. But with the population decreasing by almost 1 million people over seventy years, the city is left with more vacant housing units than other major cities.
In 2020, the city had 119,887 vacant housing units, accounting for 9.5% of all dwelling units. Compared to New York and Los Angeles, where vacancy rates were 6.9% and 5.8%, respectively, Chicago’s share is notably higher. A higher share of vacant units signals reduced demand, which can keep home prices lower.
And it’s not just that people are moving out of the city and into the suburbs either. While Chicago’s metropolitan area, which includes Naperville and Elgin, has grown more than the city’s core, its overall growth still lags behind that of other major urban regions.
Chicago’s metropolitan area saw its population increase by 70.3% from 1950 to 2020, while faster-growing cities like Miami and Austin saw their suburbs explode with increases of over 1,000%. This relative decline in housing demand has helped Chicago to maintain its affordability, despite being the third-largest city in the United States.
Philadelphia Lost Half a Million People in 70 Years
Philadelphia is currently the sixth-largest city in the U.S., but seventy years ago it ranked much higher. In 1950, Philadelphia was the third-largest city with a population of just over 2 million. Today, Philadelphia’s population has fallen by almost half a million, with a total of 1.6 million.
As a result, Philadelphia had 68,722 vacant housing units in 2020. Similar-sized Phoenix, which also has a population of 1.6 million, had 47,743 vacant housing units. That 20,000-unit difference means competition for housing in Philadelphia is not as tight. With a median home price of $468,000 in 2025, Philadelphia isn’t the most affordable city, but given its size and proximity to major hubs like New York and Washington, D.C., it remains a pocket of relative affordability in the otherwise expensive Northeast.
The 4 Cities That Fell Out of the Top 10
In 1950, Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, and St. Louis all ranked among the ten largest cities in the United States. Since then, these cities have undergone major population shifts, transitioning from industrial hubs to more relaxed, mid-sized cities.
Among these, Detroit and St. Louis’ populations have shrunk the most, by over 60% each. Detroit also had the largest percentage of vacant housing units in 2020 at 17.9%, while St. Louis also had a high number of vacant units at 16.5%.
After losing hundreds of thousands of residents, these cities face the opposite problem of rapidly growing populations. In most markets, limited housing supply drives up prices. But in cities like Detroit, which were built to accommodate larger populations, the existing housing stock helps keep prices more affordable.
Legacy Cities Lose Ground to the Booming Sun Belt
In 1910, Buffalo was the tenth largest city in the country with a population of 423,715. In 2020, Buffalo’s population declined by 52% to 278,349. Today, it’s not even one of the top 50 largest cities in the country.
Pittsburgh and New Orleans were once booming, wealthy cities in the 19th and 20th centuries. But since 1950, their populations have declined by over 30%. Their suburban areas have also seen limited growth, with Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans experiencing the third-smallest percentage increases in their metropolitan areas among 25 cities analyzed.
Shifting economies pushed residents to look for work in other cities, but changing lifestyle preferences may also play a role in driving home buyers elsewhere. In a study from PODS, two-thirds of moves in 2025 are to the Sun Belt, with Myrtle Beach, SC, Wilmington, NC and Raleigh, NC top destinations.
This tracks with U.S. Census data that shows that Sun Belt cities like Phoenix, Austin, and Houston have experienced population growth of over 200% from 1950 to 2020. On top of that, Austin, Phoenix, and Houston have been able to maintain relative affordability despite their populations booming. That’s where inventory comes into play.
Why Some Cities Stay Affordable And Others Don’t
Two of the fastest-growing cities, Austin and Phoenix, have also managed to keep pace with housing demand. From 1950 to 1970, the number of housing units in Phoenix surged by 1,500%, and in Austin by over 1,000%. It’s not just census data that confirms this. A Consumer Affairs report showed that Phoenix and Austin rank in the top ten cities for new-home construction. This rapid expansion has helped keep price growth more moderate compared to other growing cities where housing supply can’t keep up with population growth.
Meanwhile, six of the 10 cities analyzed that are experiencing population declines have also seen a drop in housing inventory. A decrease in the number of dwelling units can put upward pressure on prices, but only if demand remains strong. In these shrinking cities, the opposite is true: with fewer residents and weaker demand, even a reduced housing stock hasn’t led to significant price increases. Instead, prices remain relatively stable or low, reflecting the diminished competition for homes.
All metropolitan areas studied saw an increase in housing units, reflecting the broader trend of suburban expansion across the United States. However, regions with the highest population growth also experienced the largest increases in housing inventory. Notably, the Miami, Phoenix, and Austin metropolitan areas each saw housing units increase by over 1,000%. As more residents move from downtown cores to the suburbs, these areas may continue to see rising prices.
Among cities with population decline, Cincinnati stands out. While the city’s population fell by 38.7% over 70 years, its metropolitan area (which includes parts of Kentucky and Indiana) grew by 149.6%. During the same period, the number of housing units in the metro region rose by 237.2%. This may suggest that affordability is tightening in the surrounding suburban areas, even as the city itself remains relatively affordable.
Affordability Isn’t Just About Price. It’s About Income, Too
On paper, Detroit, Cleveland, and Buffalo appear affordable because of their low home prices. In reality, incomes in these cities are not as high as in Seattle or San Francisco, meaning local residents may still have a hard time affording housing.
In 1950, Detroit had one of the lowest rent-to-income ratios at 12.8%—lower than cities like Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and New York. Its median family income at the time was also higher than every other city we analyzed for that year. By 2020, however, Detroit had the highest rent-to-income ratio at 32.9%, surpassing even more expensive cities like San Francisco and San Diego.
Unlike San Francisco and San Diego, where median annual incomes rose from $3,000 in 1950 to over $100,000 in 2020, Detroit’s income growth has stalled.
Cleveland and Philadelphia followed a similar trend, shifting from some of the lowest rent-to-income ratios to among the highest. Meanwhile, cities like Seattle and Washington, D.C., despite having higher real estate prices, maintain much lower rent-to-income ratios.
This highlights that affordability is always relative to income. In a high-cost city with high salaries, homeownership may still be within reach, while in a lower-cost city with stagnant wages, affordability can remain a challenge. It is a delicate balance, and as populations decline, not only can home prices stay low, but incomes may also stagnate if the local economy slows in response.
To address affordability, policymakers need to do more than just manage home prices. They also need to foster income growth and prepare for population shifts that can reshape housing demand.
How Might Population Trends Change Over the Next 70 Years?
As climate change influences migration patterns, midwestern and Rust Belt cities may start to see a resurgence. While Americans are currently flocking to the Sun Belt, an increase in natural disasters in some of these popular coastal cities may shift migration inland and northward.
Climate migrants have already begun heading to more stable regions. In both 2017 and 2022, The Guardian reported that Puerto Ricans displaced by hurricanes relocated to Buffalo, while Duluth, Minnesota, has started attracting Californians escaping wildfires.
At the same time, many cities with declining populations have launched initiatives to attract new residents. In Buffalo, the “Be in Buffalo” program targets skilled professionals and offers a website portal to help movers find housing, jobs, and other resources. Detroit’s population is also growing again, and it’s largely thanks to its initiative to welcome and retain more immigrants.
Population patterns shift with each generation. The real estate hotspots of today may fade over time, while cities once written off could stage a comeback. As economic forces, climate change, and lifestyle preferences continue to reshape where people choose to live, affordability and opportunity may reemerge in places long overlooked.
Considering a move to one of these cities? Start browing available properties today!
