Is buying a home easier or harder than it was 30 years ago? That debate – and the answer – varies depending on the historical factors considered and your own financial position and lifestyle preference.
We explore how times have changed by looking at prices, demographics, mortgage rates, and house type and location.
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Prices
Then: A long slump
Going into the 1990s, Canada’s housing market seemed robust, but then the economy slid and prices stagnated for most of the decade. In Toronto, prices peaked at $254,197 in 1989 and didn’t reach that level again for more than 12 years.
Statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association show that the national average price was $142,091 in 1990 and $154,768 by 1997 – an 8% increase that, according to Financial Post columnist Garry Marr, is “paltry by today’s standards.” Even two years later, in 1999, the national average price was still just $158,000.
Now: Prices continue to adjust to the post-pandemic market
The current housing landscape is still in a period of recovery after staggering price gains during the pandemic followed by rapid interest rate growth that restricted buying power. The national average price for a home sold in December 2022 was $626,316, which is a 12% drop from December 2021’s average home price of $711,579. One of the overriding themes of 2022 was the lack of inventory available for potential buyers.
Nonetheless, there have been some areas that have experienced monthly gains in prices. Saint John’s average price increased by 6.5% to $284,899. Calgary’s price also grew by 2.7% to $518,341.
Although it is true people are making more money than in the past, incomes have not kept pace with prices. A recent report shows that there are only five major cities in Canada that provide housing that is affordable for families with a single median income earner.
Demographics
Then: Fewer first-time home buyers
A key factor in Canada’s last major housing market crisis – which set the 1990s up for stagnation – was the unusually low number of people in the 25-34 age group. The lack of young people meant fewer first-time home buyers to drive the market forward.
Now: First-time buyers and investors dominate the market
By comparison, there are many more people currently in the 25-34 age group waiting on the sidelines for prices to drop further to afford to purchase their first homes. As interest rates have made housing less affordable in Canada, many investors that had the funds to scoop up properties even with the higher rates have been quite active in Canadian markets.
Mortgage Rates
Then: High mortgage rates
At the beginning of the 1990s, the interest on a 5-year fixed mortgage rate – the most popular rate in Canada – was about 14%. Rates gradually declined but jumped over the 10% mark in 1995 until permanently dropping, thanks in part to new Bank of Canada policies.
Now: Lower mortgage rates
Over the past decade, interest rates on mortgages have been at historical lows, hovering between the 2-5% range on average, which is less than half what they were 20 years ago. This substantial difference has made buying a home a more attractive and feasible option.
While the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been steadily raising interest rates the past year, in comparison to 30 years ago, today’s rates are still highly competitive.
House Type & Location
Then: Suburban expansion
Data from the 2001 Census suggest the majority of dwellings built in the 1990s were constructed in “peripheral neighbourhoods” – metropolitan suburbs with low population density. Housing starts lagged in the first few years of the decade, but then the construction of single-detached homes increased until the early 2000s, making up the bulk of construction projects.
Now: Condo boom
The influx of first time home buyers and their preference for an urban lifestyle is accelerating condo development. Of the hundreds of high-rise buildings under construction, the vast majority are condos – and the square footage is getting smaller.
Those seeking affordable detached family homes must look further afield. That’s why the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas continue to sprawl, and commutes are getting longer.
Conclusion
There’s no question the housing environment and trends of today have changed drastically since the 1990s – for better and for worse. Only time will tell what the future market brings, but it’s always good to know a bit of history for context and understand the different contributing factors.
Published: October 6, 2014
Last updated: February 17, 2023
