In the latest report from the National Association of Realtors, San Jose became the first market where the median single-family home price surpassed $2 million, setting a new record since the association began tracking prices in 1979. While $2 million once bought a mega-mansion, today it’s the norm in San Jose, and it won’t be long before other markets reach major price milestones of their own.
So, when exactly can we expect $1 million – or even $2 million – to become the new normal in major U.S. single-family housing markets? Zoocasa analyzed the annual average increase in median single-family home prices from 2014 to 2024 across 40 metropolitan areas and used this growth rate to predict when median home prices will surpass the $1 million or $2 million mark.
It’s important to keep in mind that the housing market is unpredictable, with factors like interest rates, economic shifts, and changes in supply and demand playing a significant role. While growth rates offer a helpful estimate, they may not hold steady if the market experiences drastic changes. However, they can still provide a general sense of where prices could head in the future.
San Francisco Will Be the Next Market to Surpass $2 Million
California is home to seven of the ten most expensive markets in the U.S., and soon, it will also be home to four markets with a median single-family home price above $2,000,000. With an average annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2014 to 2024, Zoocasa projects that the median single-family home price in San Francisco will reach $2 million by 2028. Currently, the median price is at $1,449,000 and will likely reach above $1.5 million sometime in 2025.
In 2029, it’s predicted that Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine will be the next single-family market to cross the $2 million mark, followed by San Diego-Carlsbad in 2033.
However, only some cities in California are set to see prices go that high. The median single-family home price is far from reaching $2 million in Los Angeles, but it is predicted to be above $1 million by 2027. Similarly, the median home price will not cross the $1 million mark until 2030 in Riverside, and 2031 in Sacramento.
12 Housing Markets on Track for $1M Median Prices by 2030
Within the next six years, at least 12 more single-family home markets are projected to have a median price higher than $1 million. Among these, Boulder and Naples are expected to be the next cities to reach this milestone in 2026, followed by Seattle, Los Angeles, and Boston in 2027.
These five markets already have median single-family home prices above $800,000, making them some of the most expensive markets in the country. As prices creep up higher and higher, future home buyers may look outside of these large metros if income growth doesn’t start to keep pace with the cost of housing.
Although Reno's current median home price is $620,400, it’s expected to hit the $1 million mark by 2029. This is primarily due to the city's impressive average growth rate of 10.2% over the past decade, one of the highest among the analyzed markets. The only market with a higher growth rate is Boise City-Nampa, at 11.1%, which is projected to hit the $1 million mark slightly later, in 2031.
Miami also has a high average growth rate of 9.3%, which means its median price will likely be above $1 million by 2029. Ten years ago, the median single-family home price was just $270,000 and it’s risen by about $375,000 in just ten years.
Some Cities Will Take Longer To Hit the $1M Mark
Over the next 10 years, 19 more single-family home markets are expected to surpass a median price of $1 million, including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Washington DC, and Raleigh. Of these, nine markets—such as Newark, Sarasota, and New York City—are projected to hit this milestone by 2031.
While many markets are on track to hit the $1 million mark sooner, others will take a bit longer. For instance, Austin, with an average growth rate of 8.2% over the past decade, will not reach a median price of $1 million until 2033. Similarly, Chicago, which currently has a median price of $392,100, will take more than 15 years to reach a median price of $1 million.
For buyers in fast-rising markets like San Francisco or Boulder, entering the market sooner could mean securing a more affordable price before values climb even higher. On the other hand, buyers in markets with a more moderate pace of growth, like Austin, have the advantage of more time to plan their purchase without the immediate risk of being priced out. While rising prices may seem daunting, they also offer the promise of long-term equity gains, providing stability and a solid return on investment down the road.
Methodology:
The report examined the average annual increase in median single-family home prices from 2014 to 2024 across 40 metropolitan areas, using Q2 2024 data from the National Association of Realtors’ “Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas”. By applying the growth rate for each area using the formula Future Price=Current Price x (1+ Growth Rate), Zoocasa predicted when median home prices would reach above $1 million or $2 million in each market.
