Condominium apartments are often the most affordable path to homeownership, but rising prices could change that narrative. Zoocasa analyzed the annual average increase in median condo prices from 2019 to 2024 across major metropolitan areas, using this growth rate to forecast when average condo prices might surpass the one million dollar mark.
Within the next decade, 40% of regions across Canada, including major urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver, are expected to see their average home prices soar to $1 million or more. The majority of these high-priced markets will be concentrated in Ontario. What’s particularly noteworthy is the inclusion of Halifax from the Atlantic region, a city that has been gaining momentum in recent years. While traditionally more affordable than its counterparts in Ontario or British Columbia, Halifax has seen significant price increases due to heightened demand, limited inventory, and growing migration.
Future property prices are predicted based on the average year-over-year growth rate from the past five years using data from the Canadian Real Estate Association and calculated as a consistent percentage. This growth rate is applied annually to the most recent price, with each year’s result as the basis for the following calculation. Using this method, property prices in any region can be projected to reach significant milestones, such as exceeding one million dollar mark, assuming that steady growth continues.
All Eyes on the East Coast
The Halifax condo market has experienced significant growth since 2019, marked by rapid price increases, especially between 2020 and 2022. Halifax has seen a surge in population growth driven by interprovincial migration and international immigration. Many people from higher-cost provinces like Ontario and British Columbia moved to Halifax for affordable housing, driving demand for condos.
Historically, low interest rates from 2020 to 2021 boosted affordability and incentivized buyers to enter the market. This contributed to dramatic price increases, with the average condo price rising from $348,275 in 2021 to $424,400 in 2022.
In 2023 and 2024, while the market stabilized somewhat compared to the explosive growth of 2021–2022, condo prices remained elevated. This reflects ongoing demand and economic resilience in Halifax despite higher interest rates. By October 2024, the average price reached $472,100, indicating continued market strength but slower growth.
Within five years, the Halifax condo market grew by 68.40%, translating to an annualized average growth rate of 13.68%. If Halifax maintains its current growth trajectory, its condo prices could soon rival Vancouver and Toronto’s.
When Might $1M Condos Be the New Normal in Big Cities?
If condo prices continue increasing the same way they are now, Vancouver can see condos averaging one million dollars by 2030, and Toronto can see condos averaging one million dollars by 2031.
Toronto and Vancouver’s property markets have both experienced notable growth over the past five years, with Toronto’s prices rising from $504,758 in 2019 to $671,980 in 2024—a 33% increase despite some fluctuations—and Vancouver’s prices climbing from $605,950 to $768,780, reflecting a 27% gain.
Vancouver’s housing market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.94%, with average prices expected to hit $806,719 by 2025 and potentially surpass $1 million by 2030. In comparison, Toronto’s market is forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of 6.29%, reaching $714,247 by 2025 and crossing the $1 million mark by 2031. Both cities are on track to nearly double their 2019 values within the next six years, solidifying their positions as Canada’s most dynamic real estate markets.
On the other hand, four regions, Victoria, Ottawa, Saint John, and Montreal, are expected to achieve this milestone within 20 years. Calgary and Saskatoon are anticipated to reach the threshold in 16 and 22 years, respectively.
Newfoundland is expected to reach this milestone in 30 years. However, the timelines are significantly longer in Winnipeg and Regina, where the average home price of $1 million is projected to be reached in 57 years and 61 years.
Calgary Post Population Boom
Calgary is a city experiencing a population surge and consistent property market growth. The city’s population boom, driven by strong interprovincial migration and an attractive job market, has fueled housing demand, setting it apart from other Canadian cities. Over the past three years, Calgary’s property prices have consistently grown from $246,783 in 2021 to $342,110 in 2024—an increase of nearly 39%.
From 2019 to 2024, prices grew from $244,592 to $342,110, a significant rise of approximately 40% in just five years.
Post-2024 projections indicate an average annual growth rate of 7.11%, resulting in compounding effects that amplify price increases over time. By 2030, Calgary’s property prices are expected to surpass $500,000; by 2035, they are projected to double their 2024 value, reaching $728,275. Following this trajectory, the one million dollar mark will be achieved by 2040.
Understanding these trends provides critical insights into market potential and long-term opportunities for investors and homebuyers alike. Although no prediction is certain, analyzing past performance alongside future projections can help inform decisions about property investing.
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