Canadian buying habits are shifting in response to economic challenges and trade war tensions with the United States. From groceries to travel, Canadians are increasingly looking for domestic alternatives to American products, and real estate is no exception.
An April survey by Humi, a Canadian employment platform, found that over half of Canadians who previously considered moving to the U.S. in the past five years are now less likely to do so due to Donald Trump’s election and new tariffs.
With Canadians making up the largest share of foreign real estate buyers in the U.S., a slowdown in activity could cause big financial repercussions. If Canadian buyers pulled out of the U.S. market completely, some states would lose billions of dollars in transaction volume.
Using data from the National Association of Realtors’ 2024 report on international transactions, Zoocasa estimated how much transaction volume the top 12 states for Canadian buyers could lose if those buyers slowed or stopped purchasing entirely, and what the impact would be if they bought in Canada instead.
Table of Contents:
- Why Canadian Buyers Matter in the U.S. Market
- Canadian Interest in U.S. Homes is Declining
- Florida Faces the Biggest Risk
- Secondary Markets Also Stand to Lose
- Canadian Real Estate Could See a Boost
Vacation Markets Could Lose Billions if Canadian Buyers Leave the U.S.
There were 54,300 foreign buyers in the U.S. in 2024, and Canadians represented the largest portion of that at 13%, or approximately 7,100 existing homes purchased. China, Mexico, India, and Colombia followed, each accounting for 6,000 or fewer purchases.
Compared to domestic buyers, Canadians are big spenders—averaging $834,000 per home, well above the U.S. national average of $503,800. Given that Canadian buyers typically purchase in resort and vacation markets, coastal and warm-weather cities would be hit hardest if Canadians pulled out of U.S. real estate.
Specifically, Florida, Arizona, and Hawaii would be most affected if Canadian buyers left the U.S. real estate market. In 2024, Florida was the most popular destination for Canadian buyers, accounting for 41% of Canadian purchases, followed by Arizona at 23%, Hawaii at 9%, and California at 6%.
With an estimated 2,911 homes bought by Canadians in Florida in 2024, the state could lose as much as $2.4 billion in transaction volume if Canadian buyers disappeared entirely. Arizona could see a loss of $1.3 billion, while Hawaii and California would miss out on $532 million and $355 million, respectively.
While other states might not have as many Canadian buyers, even a loss of just 100 buyers could result in over $80 million in lost transaction volume. New York, Texas, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania each had about 200 transactions last year from Canadian buyers, representing between $177 million and $236 million in transaction volume.
But vacation hotspots aren’t the only areas at risk. In 2024, Illinois and Ohio each saw roughly 71 home purchases by Canadian buyers, totaling over $100 million in transaction volume for approximately 140 properties altogether. If these purchases are concentrated in specific cities, a drop in activity could significantly impact smaller local markets.
While it’s unlikely that Canadian real estate transactions in the U.S. will stop entirely, there has been a clear trend of Canadians buying fewer homes, and this is likely to continue. The question now is: how much further will it decline?
Fewer Canadians Are Buying U.S. Homes
Canadians have been buying fewer U.S. homes for over a decade now.
In 2010, Canadians accounted for 69,100 existing-home purchases in the U.S., but by 2019, that figure had declined by more than 70%, falling to just 19,900 transactions.
2024 marked the lowest number of U.S. transactions by Canadians in 15 years, with only 7,100 purchases. That was even lower than in the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, which saw 18,300 and 8,800 transactions, respectively.
Zoocasa calculated the average rate of decline from 2019 to 2024 to project how the numbers might shift in the coming years. Based on an average annual decline of 14.5%, Zoocasa estimates there will be approximately 6,071 Canadian buyers in 2025 and 5,191 in 2026. Using this 14.5% figure, we further calculated how the decline might impact real estate markets at the state level.
Florida Faces the Biggest Risk
As one of the most sought-after vacation destinations in the U.S., Florida attracts millions of tourists each year and a steady wave of international home buyers eager to own a slice of paradise. However, in 2025, Canadian travel has dropped significantly. According to the Tampa Bay Times, Florida airports and airlines are reporting notable declines in demand, with WestJet even cutting its route from Edmonton to Orlando. If homebuyers follow the same trend as travelers, Florida could stand to lose over half a billion dollars. This decline could significantly affect housing demand and pricing in key markets such as Miami, Tampa, and Orlando.
If 14.5% fewer Canadian buyers purchase a home in Florida in 2025 compared to 2024, the state could see a drop of approximately $351,948,000 in transaction volume. If this trend continues into 2026, it would result in an additional decrease of $301 million. In total, Florida could face a loss of more than $653 million in real estate transactions in just two years.
Secondary Markets Also Stand to Lose Millions
Other popular vacation destinations for Canadians, including Arizona, Hawaii, California, and New York, will also lose hundreds of millions of dollars if Canadian buyers continue to retreat from the market. A 14.5% decline in Canadian buyers between 2024 to 2026 would lead to an estimated 500 fewer property sales in Arizona, reducing total sales volume by approximately $366 million.
Similarly, Hawaii could see a loss of around $100 million, and California about $95 million. New York, while less seasonal, could still see a meaningful decline of $29 million.
As tourism-driven economies, these declines could also impact local businesses that rely on seasonal residents. According to the Arizona Office of Tourism, 822,500 Canadians visited Arizona in 2023, with a budget of $ 5,521 and an average household income of $114,228. Assuming long-term and seasonal residents spend more than short-term tourists, Arizona businesses could lose access to high-spending snowbirds.
How Canadian Buyer Declines Could Affect Other U.S. Markets
The Domestic Impact: What If These Buyers Returned to Canada?
Domestic purchases may increase as the number of Canadians buying homes in the U.S. decreases. With a USD 834,000 budget, Canadians returning home would have roughly CAD 1.15 million to spend on a home. These buyers would likely favor recreational or secondary homes, which could lead to a bump in demand in cottage country, ski resorts, or coastal towns.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, there were 520,462 total Canadian home sales in 2024, with Ontario accounting for 36.1% of all sales. Quebec, Alberta, and British Columbia followed with 18.9%, 16.9%, and 14.8%, respectively.
If the 7,100 Canadian buyers in the U.S. were distributed across these four provinces based on their 2024 market share, Ontario could see more than 2,000 buyers enter the market, representing over $2.9 billion in transaction volume. Quebec would follow with roughly 1,300 buyers and $1.5 billion in transactions.
Alberta and British Columbia could each welcome just over 1,000 returning buyers, adding more than $1.2 billion to their respective provincial sales volumes.
While returning buyers could add to competition in already tight markets, many are likely to be retirees or snowbirds who would focus their purchases in vacation areas. This could revive Ontario’s cottage country, which has seen a slow start to the year. But ultimately, the number of returning Canadian buyers depends on economic conditions and the stability of U.S.-Canada relations, which could shift quickly. Additionally, it will be interesting to see if retirees or snowbirds will opt for other countries outside of the U.S if staying somewhere warm during the winters is their top priority.
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