{"id":43485,"date":"2026-10-16T13:28:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T17:28:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/?p=43485"},"modified":"2026-10-16T13:28:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T17:28:11","slug":"2026-september-crea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2026-september-crea\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s Housing Forecast Revised as Sales and Prices Slip in September: CREA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the fall has historically been a busy time for home sales, Canadian home sales are breaking from the narrative this year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association\u2019s (CREA) <a href=\"https:\/\/stats.crea.ca\/en-CA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">latest<\/a> report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Home sales were down 2.3% month over month in September, while prices edged down 1.6%. At the same time, new supply declined again last month, while inventory grew. The changes come as Canada braces for potential rate increases from the Bank of Canada, following the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/mortgage-rates-homeownership-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. increasing rates<\/a> in September.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAfter a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, many of Canada\u2019s housing markets took a step back in September,\u201d CREA\u2019s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart said. \u201cThis was hardly surprising given the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates, and with the Bank of Canada now widely expected to follow with a rate hike before the end of the year.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1399\" height=\"1896\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/CREA-SEPTEMBER-2026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43491\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/CREA-SEPTEMBER-2026.png 1399w, https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/CREA-SEPTEMBER-2026-221x300.png 221w, https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/CREA-SEPTEMBER-2026-767x1040.png 767w, https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/CREA-SEPTEMBER-2026-1133x1536.png 1133w, https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/CREA-SEPTEMBER-2026-750x1016.png 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1399px) 100vw, 1399px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Canada Faces Broad Sales Decline in September&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Across all of Canada, sales declined 8.3% year-over-year, the largest decline so far in 2026.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Year-over-year sales fell in all but five of the 26 areas included in CREA\u2019s report. The steepest decline was in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/sudbury-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sudbury<\/a>, down 19.4% year over year. Although previous months have shown losses concentrated in certain provinces, the other top five year-over-year decreases were spread across several provinces in September, including:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/hamilton-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Hamilton-Burlington<\/a>, ON: 16.6% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/victoria-bc-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Victoria<\/a>, BC: 16.4% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/saguenay-qc-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Saguenay CMA<\/a>, QC: 13.1% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/edmonton-ab-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Edmonton<\/a>, AB: 12.1% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/saskatoon-sk-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Saskatoon<\/a>, SK: 11.8% decline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rather than a regional issue, the data in September points to a larger shift in the market, resulting from high levels of economic uncertainty as rates are poised to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ontario Feeling Downward Price Pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The average sales price year-over-year dropped 1.4% across Canada in September, from $665,974 to $656,680. That being said, not all areas were impacted equally. The most widespread price declines were in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/ontario-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ontario<\/a>, with price decreases seen in eight of the nine areas CREA tracks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/hamilton-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Hamilton-Burlington<\/a>: 5% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/kitchener-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Kitchener-Waterloo<\/a>: 7.9% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/london-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">London and St Thomas<\/a>: 5.7% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/niagara-falls-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Niagara Region<\/a>: 9.7% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/ottawa-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ottawa<\/a>: 1.2% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/sudbury-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sudbury<\/a>: 9.5% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/toronto-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Greater Toronto<\/a>: 5.1% decline<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/windsor-on-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Windsor-Essex<\/a>: 1.8% decline<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sole exception to price declines in Ontario was Thunder Bay, where year-over-year prices actually increased 12.8% from $362,693 to $409,164.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Related:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/canadas-population-is-declining-what-does-that-mean-for-home-prices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Canada\u2019s Population Is Declining: What Does That Mean for Home Prices?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Outside of Ontario, prices also increased in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/alberta-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Alberta<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/saskatoon-sk-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Saskatchewan<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/manitoba-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Manitoba<\/a>, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/calgary-ab-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Calgary<\/a> seeing the largest gain at 6.7%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices across Canada experienced an upward swing from April through August, but the recent changes in mortgage rates and surging oil prices have injected enough uncertainty into the market to make pricing fluctuate.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn a repeat of what we saw earlier this year when the start of the spring market coincided with a jump in mortgage rates, the start of the fall market has likewise been met with an even larger jump in fixed rates,\u201d CREA Chair Garry Bhaura said. \u201cWhile that makes the task harder for prospective home buyers as it relates to a mortgage, it will also likely mean more homes to choose from and more negotiating power. For sellers, a well thought out pricing strategy will become even more important.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BC Sees a Drop-Off In New Listings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although new listings fell by 5% across all of Canada year over year, the province hit hardest was British Columbia. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/fraser-valley-bc-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fraser Valley<\/a> had the largest decline in new listings of all areas at 24.3%, while the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/vancouver-bc-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Greater Vancouver<\/a> area experienced a 13.9% decrease. Collectively, that\u2019s about 1,700 fewer new listings on the market compared to the previous year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Losses were also broadly reported across Ontario, with declines ranging from around 4% to 16%. Eastern Canada actually saw new listings increase for the most part, with a 29% increase in the Trois Rivi\u00e8res CMA and a 19.8% increase in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/quebec-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Quebec CMA<\/a>. Most of these gains were seen in less populated areas, however, meaning that the percent change in new listings in Eastern Canada doesn\u2019t really make up for the losses seen in Central and Western Canada.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Related:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/alberta-down-payment-timeline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Then vs. Now: Saving for a Home in Calgary and Edmonton in the Past 4 Years<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Across Canada, about 5,000 fewer new listings entered the market compared to the previous year, while inventory rose about 1.8%. This points to homes moving slower overall, which is reflected in the increase in months of inventory to 4.8.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CREA Updates Resale Report Projections Amid Economic Shifts&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alongside its September report, CREA also released revised projections for the resale housing market on Oct. 16.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sales activity forecast now predicts there will be a 5.2% decline in annual home sales across Canada by the end of 2026, with the largest declines in Alberta (9% down), Nova Scotia (7.7% down) and Prince Edward Island (7.7% down).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Projections for 2026 also show a 0.2% price increase across the nation, with the largest shifts in Newfoundland (up 5.7%) and Ontario (down 3%).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For 2027, CREA predicts both home sales and prices will increase by 4.4% and 1.2%, respectively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Related:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/trreb-september-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Toronto\u2019s Fall Comeback Falls Flat as Sales Take a Hit: TRREB<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This marks the second decline in CREA\u2019s projected 2026 resale performance, with the first in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/crea-june-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">June<\/a>. These shifts were made in response to recent changes in fixed-rate mortgage affordability and a \u201chawkish\u201d tone from the Bank of Canada, alongside the global energy crisis, which have all impacted borrowing costs, according to CREA.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What These Changes Mean for The Housing Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Economic uncertainty remains at the forefront of the housing conversation, with lower home sales in September and CREA\u2019s revised 2026 projection for resale housing sitting at a 5% loss. A rate increase from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofcanada.ca\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bank of Canada<\/a> and ever-changing oil market prices will ultimately pave the way for how Canada\u2019s housing market will fare through the end of 2026.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWith housing affordability already stretched, the big question going forward is how much farther will the Bank have to go to keep a lid on inflation next year?\u201d Cathcart said. \u201cUntil that becomes clearer, this fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Although the fall has historically been a busy time for home sales, Canadian home sales are breaking from the narrative this year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association\u2019s (CREA) latest report. Home sales were down 2.3% month over month in September, while prices edged down 1.6%. At the same time, new supply declined again [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":178,"featured_media":43488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>CREA&#039;s Housing Forecast Revised as Sales Slip in September<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Although the fall has historically been a busy time for home sales, Canadian home sales are breaking from the narrative this year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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