With Costco planning nearly 30 new U.S. warehouse openings in 2026, we analyzed which communities have the right mix of income and population density to benefit from the Costco effect on home values, and which markets may see little change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why Costco Is Different From a Walmart or an IKEA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Costco is not the only retailer linked to rising home values. A study<\/a> by economists Devin and Jaren Pope found that homes within half a mile of a new Walmart gained 2% to 3% in value, while those located between half a mile and one mile away saw a smaller 1% to 2% increase.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n IKEA followed a different pattern. A peer-reviewed study<\/a> from Sweden found home prices rose by an average of 4.2% to 4.4% in cities that welcomed a new store, but homes closest to the location saw no statistically significant gain. Instead, prices increased farther away, with the effect still reaching about 2% six miles from the store.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Costco stands apart from both Walmart and IKEA. A typical warehouse is more than just a retail store. It usually spans over 150,000 square feet, includes a busy gas station, and operates around frequent freight deliveries. Residents gain access to lower prices, affordable fuel, and new jobs, but they also face more truck traffic, busier roads, and a much larger commercial presence. According to Kwok’s research, these competing factors generally offset each other, leaving little overall impact on nearby home values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To measure the true Costco effect on home values, Kwok compared homes at several distances from each new warehouse with similar properties located 20 to 25 miles away. This control group was close enough to reflect the same local economy but far enough away to avoid being affected by the new store. The study also accounted for seasonal changes and broader housing market trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As a final test, Kwok repeated the analysis using fake opening dates from years before the warehouses opened. Because those tests showed no meaningful effect, the findings are more likely to reflect Costco’s arrival rather than neighborhoods that were already appreciating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Once income and population density were factored in, the results for homes within five miles became much clearer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part of Costco’s appeal comes down to who shops there. Its membership model, which depends on bulk purchases and upfront annual fees, is often a better fit for higher-income households. A new warehouse can also act as a signal to other businesses that an area has strong consumer demand, potentially attracting additional retail and commercial development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In busy suburbs, a Costco nearby can actually make life easier. People are already used to traffic, so the added activity feels less disruptive. The biggest benefit is convenience because residents spend less time driving for everyday purchases. That helps support home values, but the boost is usually smaller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Costco usually keeps new locations quiet until they are close to opening, we pulled together this list using local permits, hiring pages, and news reports available as of mid-July 2026. We looked specifically at communities that fit the profile where the research found the biggest home value gains: higher-income and more densely populated markets. For reference, the median U.S. home sold for $403,200<\/a> in Q1 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Celina checks many of the boxes that researchers say matter most. Collin County households earn a median income of $124,920<\/a>, nearly 50% higher than the U.S. median of $83,730<\/a>, and homes are already worth more than the typical U.S. property.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The city is also growing quickly, and the new 158,000-square-foot Costco at Preston Road and Ownsby Parkway is bringing more attention to the area. As other retailers move into the corridor, the new development could add even more momentum to this fast-growing suburb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After years of rumors, Costco is finally coming to the Capital Region. The new warehouse opens Aug. 6 beside Crossgates Mall, giving residents their first local Costco. Albany County may not have the highest home values, with a median of $294,600<\/a>, but household incomes are above the national average. That puts the area closer to the type of higher-income market where Kwok’s research found the strongest Costco-related home value gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Wisconsin’s wealthiest county is about to get its biggest Costco yet. The new 161,000-square-foot warehouse at Pabst Farms opens on Aug. 7, bringing Costco to a community where home values are already among the state’s highest. While the county’s median home value of $398,200<\/a> is slightly below the national figure, the area’s affluence makes it the type of suburb where new retail investment can create a ripple effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Where the Cancellation Breaks Down<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Why Income Matters More<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Why Density Matters, But Less<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
7 U.S. Towns to Watch as Costco Expands in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
1. Celina, TX<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
2. Guilderland (Albany), NY<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
3. Oconomowoc, WI<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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