{"id":25975,"date":"2023-12-13T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-13T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/?p=25975"},"modified":"2024-01-03T12:27:06","modified_gmt":"2024-01-03T17:27:06","slug":"2024-canadian-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2024-canadian-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Home Prices Bottom Out in 2024? Zoocasa\u2019s Four Housing Market Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Les-4-predictions-de-Zoocasas-FR-final.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>Cliquez ici pour la version fran\u00e7aise<\/em><\/strong>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the Bank of Canada\u2019s rate hikes caught up to homeowners, the 2023 Canadian housing market was characterized by tightening affordability and buyer uncertainty. National inventory increased closer to normal levels, but that came at the cost of slowing sales. However, now that inflation is coming down, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/rates-bonds\/boc-likely-done-raising-rates-cut-by-mid-2024-say-economists-2023-10-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">many economists predict the Bank of Canada is done raising rates<\/a> and that they will come down in mid to late 2024. What will that mean for the 2024 housing market? Zoocasa\u2019s experts weigh in on the top four trends we can expect to see in the coming year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prices Will Continue to Decline, Especially for Cottage Country<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve already seen many would-be buyers return to the sidelines this fall, with month-over-month sales plunging in October by 3.4% nationally, and unless prices come down, those buyers won\u2019t be enticed to re-enter the market for non-essential purchases.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As Lauren Haw, Zoocasa\u2019s Broker of Record &amp; Industry Relations Officer, explains, \u201cThere\u2019s a current chasm between the bid\/ask for many property types. Sellers are still priced quite high relative to what non-urgent and hesitant buyers are willing to spend, meaning sellers in 2024 will have to come down to the buyers\u2019 preferred pricing in order to sell.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Non-urgent buyers, such as those moving up or downsizing, are going to delay their purchases, preferring to hold onto their current homes rather than risk higher payments. Though lower sales will help bring prices down in most segments, the demand for the idyllic family home will remain competitive. \u201cThere will still be continued pressure for family homes in prime locations which will keep prices buoyant for great detached homes in great school districts,\u201d said Haw.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/canada-mortgage-industry-evolution\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Navigating the New Norm: Evolving Trends in the Canadian Mortgage Industry<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices have already started their descent from the summer peak and the national average home price in October 2023 decreased for the fourth month in a row to $731,100.&nbsp; However, the property types that will benefit the most from price drops will be entry and mid-level cottages and recreational properties. \u201cNon-essential properties that are disposable in nature, especially those that were over-sold and speculated upon during the pandemic, will see the biggest price drops,\u201d predicted Haw.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<p><iframe title=\"Cottage Country Average Home Prices\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-mDwF0\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/mDwF0\/2\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"400\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n<\/script><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Ongoing Impact of High Interest Rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Bank of Canada\u2019s 10 rate hikes since March 2022 seem to be achieving its goal of bringing inflation down, however, the full impact has yet to be felt,\u201d explains Carrie Lysenko, Zoocasa\u2019s Chief Executive Officer. It takes several months for the effect of each rate hike to trickle down across economic markets, and in some cases, it can take as long as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/business\/bank-of-canada-july-meeting-1.6904330\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">year or a year and a half<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What this means for the real estate market is that even if rates stay flat, as many predict they will, the impact of previous rate hikes will continue to grow. \u201cEvery month that passes, more current homeowners will see their mortgages up for renewal at these higher rates, likely leading to more forced selling,\u201d said Lysenko.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, the average 2020 homebuyer in Toronto had a monthly mortgage payment of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/mortgage-renewing-cost\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$3,737<\/a>, based on one of the best available rates in September 2020 of 1.64%. Now if that same 2020 Toronto homebuyer is up for renewal, their monthly mortgage payments will increase to $4,499 a month based on the September 2023 rate of 5.24%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pre-Construction Firesales Will Increase<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In our 2023 fall market predictions <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/fall-2023-real-estate-market-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report<\/a>, we expected a slowdown in the pre-construction industry and this will hold true going into 2024. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chba.ca\/CHBA\/News\/Housing_supply_outlook_dim_as_builders_continue_to_feel_the_effects_of_interest_rate_hikes_.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Canadian Home Builders\u2019 Association<\/a>, 37% of builders cancelled projects in Q3 of 2023 and 65% said interest rates are causing them to build fewer units. \u201cThis lack of builder confidence is reducing housing starts and in the mid to long-term, this will exacerbate the undersupply issue in Canada,\u201d said Lysenko.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/tresa-dec-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TRESA: Ontario's New Real Estate Rules and What It Means for Buyers, Sellers and Agents<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cMany of the pre-con investors who closed and financed at the 2018-2021 rates will not qualify to close these properties at today\u2019s rates. Prospective landlords will have to put more equity down and\/or be underwater from a cash flow perspective,\u201d said Haw. There\u2019s also the possibility of investors selling as an assignment and never having to close, which will create a firesale market in many buildings.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It Could All Turn On a Dime<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Home prices are on a downward trend now, which is typical for the winter months as price growth generally accelerates before the beginning of the spring market. In 2022, the national average home price peaked in March at $855,800 and reached the bottom in December at $705,600. However, Haw predicts we have not yet hit bottom.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<p><iframe title=\"Average Home Prices from 2013 to 2023\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-pximK\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/pximK\/5\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"469\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();\n<\/script><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOnce that bottom is hit and prices start to go back up, it will be a rapid ascent to the top as the latent demand for housing in urban cores race to get back in before prices peak again,\u201d explained Haw. Once the curve starts to head back up, investors with notions of stabilized future returns will likely re-enter the market too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Safe Harbor Statement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on eXp World Holdings, Inc.\u2019s (\u201cwe\u201d and the \u201cCompany\u201d) management\u2019s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements about industry trends, including buyer and seller demand; geographical and geopolitical trends; predictions related to fiscal policy;&nbsp; and the continued growth of our agent and broker base. Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof, and the Company undertakes no obligation to revise or update them. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"cta\">\n<div class=\"cta-left\">\n<div class=\"cta-title\">Questions about the 2024 market?<\/div>\n<div class=\"cta-body\">Contact us today to speak to a Realtor in your area<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cta-right\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/buy-with-zoocasa\"><button class=\"cta-button\">Talk To Our Experts<\/button><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cliquez ici pour la version fran\u00e7aise. As the Bank of Canada\u2019s rate hikes caught up to homeowners, the 2023 Canadian housing market was characterized by tightening affordability and buyer uncertainty. National inventory increased closer to normal levels, but that came at the cost of slowing sales. However, now that inflation is coming down, many economists [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":132,"featured_media":25997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"0","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"0","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"1","show_post_related":"1","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"footnotes":""},"categories":[58,3,196,1160],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-affordability","category-ask-the-pros","category-bank-of-canada","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will Home Prices Bottom Out in 2024? 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Explore the upcoming trends in the 2024 housing market as Zoocasa&#039;s experts analyze the impacts and unveil the top four trends shaping the Canadian real estate scene.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2024-canadian-predictions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Zoocasa Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Zoocasa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-13T11:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-03T17:27:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Zoocasa-Will-Home-Prices-Bottom-Out-in-2024-Zoocasas-Four-Housing-Market-Predictions-Hero-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"338\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mackenzie Scibetta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Zoocasa-Will-Home-Prices-Bottom-Out-in-2024-Zoocasas-Four-Housing-Market-Predictions-Hero-1.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Zoocasa\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Zoocasa\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mackenzie Scibetta\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2024-canadian-predictions\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2024-canadian-predictions\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mackenzie Scibetta\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/f94c43a0733031723a673cfb21916c34\"},\"headline\":\"Will Home Prices Bottom Out in 2024? 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Zoocasa\u2019s Four Housing Market Predictions","datePublished":"2023-12-13T11:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2024-01-03T17:27:06+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2024-canadian-predictions\/"},"wordCount":1007,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Affordability","Ask the Pros","Bank of Canada","Market Insights"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2024-canadian-predictions\/","url":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/2024-canadian-predictions\/","name":"Will Home Prices Bottom Out in 2024? Zoocasa\u2019s Four Housing Market Predictions | Zoocasa Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-12-13T11:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2024-01-03T17:27:06+00:00","description":"Cliquez ici pour la version fran\u00e7aise. As the Bank of Canada\u2019s rate hikes caught up to homeowners, the 2023 Canadian housing market was characterized by Dive into the shifting landscape of the 2023 Canadian housing market and what's to come in 2024. National inventory levels normalized but at the expense of slowing sales. Now, with inflation easing, experts predict a shift, anticipating a potential decline in interest rates by mid to late 2024. 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